EUR / USD
On Tuesday, July 2, trading ended with a pair of EUR / USD without any change in the course. However, Wednesday began with a new decline. Eurocurrency again came under pressure from the market, and without any reason. Yesterday, there was practically no news on the tool, but the business activity today indices in the services and production sectors of both the European Union and America which will be published. In addition, it was reported that Mario Draghi, who in November will resign as the head of the ECB, is preparing the largest package of incentives. First, we are talking about reducing the key rate, which now stands at 0.0%. And secondly, we discuss about the restart of the program of quantitative easing. On the one hand, these look like the necessary measures. On the other hand, this means that the Central Bank will turn on the printing press again and will simultaneously buy bonds, which has already saved up the amount of about 3 trillion euros. According to many experts, these actions of Draghi impede the possibilities of the future chairman of the ECB, which will most likely be the current head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde. Any successor to Draghi will immediately fall into a period of negative rates and will continue to expand the portfolio of debt securities.
Purchase goals:
1.1417 - 100.0% Fibonacci
1.1480 - 127.2% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1180 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro / dollar pair is presumably located within the 3 waves of the upward trend. I recommend buying the euro with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1417 and 1.1480, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci, when the MACD signal is up. Now, the alleged correctional wave 2 continues its construction.
GBP / USD
The GBP / USD pair continues to build a new upward trend, which very soon can be transformed into a downward one. By and large, until the moment when mono will state the abolition of the construction of the ascending section, there is no more than 60 b.p. Yesterday, the pound-dollar instrument dropped 60 basis points. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave e will complicate the downward trend. However, the possible transition of the pair to the construction of the horizontal one is unsuccessful. Unfortunately, for the pound sterling, a horizontal stretch is the best option possible, as Brexit continues to force traders to get rid of the British currency. But, there is no news that can cause the purchase of the pound. Until the election of the new leader of the Conservative Party, there are still three weeks left.
Sales targets:
1.2434 - 161.8% Fibonacci
1.2359 - 200.0% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2767 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the instrument for the pound / dollar pair involves the construction of a new upward trend. At the same time, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the maximum of wave d, which confirms the willingness of markets to further increase, and only after that, we can make purchases. For sales, I recommend to wait for the breakthrough of the wave e minimum.
