GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3017), turned in favor of the US dollar and fell to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2900), which was followed by a rebound with a reversal in favor of the pound and growth to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2933). Thus, the rebound from the Fibo level of 38.2% will work again in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective levels of 23.6% and 0.0% (1.2848). I believe that the probability of a fall in the next few days to the level of 1.2850 is high. However, today this scenario may be hindered by statistics from America. In any case, to clarify the graphic picture, you should refer to the older charts.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair failed to work out the upper line of the updated downward trend corridor on February 26. Thus, a new fall began inside this corridor. This fall was stopped by the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. However, the effect of this divergence may be short-lived. Traders did not receive a clear signal to buy or sell yesterday. Thus, a new increase in the British currency quotes is now allowed, as well as a continuation of the fall in the direction of the lower line of the trend corridor.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart yesterday, an important sales signal was formed in the form of a rebound from the upper line of the descending trend corridor (marked with a blue arrow). Thus, now traders can count on the fall of the euro quotes in the long term in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2736). Of course, it is better to work out this signal on lower charts. And don't forget about the COT reports and information background, which can make changes to the current mood and plans of most traders.
News overview:
No important reports were released in the UK or the US on Wednesday, February 26.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
USA - change in GDP for the 4th quarter (13:30 UTC+00).
USA - change in the volume of orders for long-term products (13:30 UTC+00).
All the most interesting things will be in America today. Two important reports that can affect the mood of traders, which is now defined as "bearish". During the release of these reports, you should monitor the market as closely as possible.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The previous COT report came down to the fact that there was almost complete equality between the total number of long and short positions. In the hands of speculators, a greater number of long positions were concentrated and short positions were concentrated in the hands of corporations. Thus, the COT report, which will be released tomorrow, is designed to answer the question of whether the mood of major market players has changed over the past week. Many graphical patterns now point to the fall of the pair. However, this requires that major players begin to build up short positions. Tomorrow's report will answer this question. If there is approximate equality between purchases and sales again, then the Briton is likely to remain in the trend corridor of the 4-hour chart, which is directed almost horizontally.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
The trading idea for February 27 is to sell the pound with targets of 1.2900 and 1.2848 if the pair performs a rebound from the level of 1.2933 on the hourly chart. Stop Loss orders can be placed above the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2933).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency for current operations or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
