02.03.202115:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weak macro statistics from Germany did not prevent European stock indexes from growing

Exchange Rates 02.03.2021 analysis

The actual indicators of the macro statistics released today from Germany were significantly worse than those predicted by analysts. According to the published data, the volume of retail sales in Germany in January decreased by as much as 8.7% in annual terms, and in monthly terms by a significant 4.5%.

However, despite the weak statistics of the largest European economy, the major stock indexes of the Eurozone continue to grow for the second day in a row. The optimism of market participants regarding the recovery of the EU economy raises the quotes of stock indexes. Thus, the British FTSE 100 index rose by 0.47%, the French CAC 40 – by 0.17%, and the German DAX by 0.16%.

The positive dynamics of the indexes are largely due to the news about the decline in the incidence rate of coronavirus. The deployment of mass vaccination in the EU countries gives a lot of hope to market participants for the lifting of quarantine restrictions and the subsequent gradual and quite confident recovery of business activity.

However, the euphoria in the stock market is clearly premature, especially in light of the statement by WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus, who said yesterday that countries should not just hope for vaccination and expect the lifting of restrictive measures soon.

In addition to the depressing retail sales figures in Germany, the unemployment rate in this country in February remained at 6% for the second month in a row and is likely to tend to further decline. According to published data, the number of unemployed in Germany in February increased by as much as 9,000 compared to January and amounted to 2.752 million people.

The weak statistics of the largest European economy and data on inflation in the eurozone put pressure on the single European currency, which against the US dollar fell to $1.2026 per euro from the previous closing level of $1.2047.

Exchange Rates 02.03.2021 analysis

As for the data on the growth of prices in the eurozone, the annual inflation in February remained at the same level in the EU countries as in January – 0.9%, as expected by analysts.

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert
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