Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on May 27, 2021
As suggested in yesterday's article on the main currency pair of the Forex market, one daily candle close above the resistance of 1.2244 may not be enough to consider the breakdown of this level true. The results of yesterday's trading on EUR/USD confirmed this assumption. We will analyze the charts in more detail in the technical part of the review. However, for now, a bit of other information. Summer is inevitably approaching, and Europe is preparing for the start of the tourist season. Let me remind you that about a year and a half has passed since various restrictions and lockdowns. Naturally, during this time, people have missed traveling and tourist trips. However, despite the improvement in COVID-19, a complete victory over the ill-fated pandemic is still far away. Nevertheless, everyday life is gradually getting better. Meanwhile, certificates are being introduced for travelers across the European Union that will reflect information about a person's vaccination, whether they have had a coronavirus or not, and a negative test for COVID.
Naturally, these are bureaucratic delays that cause discontent and irritation of people. However, these are the current realities. However, Brussels officials are trying to reduce bureaucratic obstacles to a minimum to not discourage people from traveling. Today's macroeconomic statistics will come mainly from the United States of America. Starting at 13:30 Moscow time, data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, orders for durable goods, as well as revised data on US GDP for the first quarter will be published. Of the European events, we can only note the speech of the head of the German Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. Although, according to long-term observation, the comments of this hawkish-minded monetary policy rarely have a strong impact on the price dynamics of the single European currency.
Daily
Moving on to the charts, let's start with the daily timeframe, where it is visible that after the highs of May 25, shown at 1.2266, the attempts of the euro bulls to continue the rise of the rate the next day were limited only to 1.2262, after which the pair turned to decline and closed yesterday's session at 1.2190. This factor can certainly be considered bearish since yesterday's highs were lower than the previous ones, and the closing price was fixed under the most important mark of 1.2200. This morning, the pair has already visited 1.2175. However, it found support and showed a recovery, trading near 1.2202. In this situation, you should not discount the red line of the Ichimoku Tenkan indicator, which contributes to the strength of the support area of 1.2200-1.2175.
H1
The pair is still trading below the used moving averages on the hourly chart, trying to break through the nearest orange 200 exponentials. But to show your tendency to grow and retest for a breakdown of the strong and key resistance zone at the moment 1.2244-1.2266, you need to go up 89 EMA with 50 MA, which is located at 1.2214 and 1.2228. If the bearish reversal patterns of the candlestick analysis appear near the selected prices, this will be a signal to open sell deals. In turn, for purchases, I recommend using short-term pullbacks down to the area of 1.2180-1.2170. However, such a pullback has already taken place, so (aggressively and riskily) anyone can try buying the EUR/USD pair from current prices.
