Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting near-four-year high of 99.88 on Wednesday. The rate is underpinned by Bank of Japan's aggressive easing measures to help reach its 2% inflation target in two years; yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 3.74% to 12.36; S&P rose 1.22% overnight) as Chinese imports surged 14.1% on year, well above +6.1% forecast, a sign that demand from the world's second-largest economy remained strong; and minutes of FOMC March meeting did little to dissuade investors that the Federal Reserve remains committed to supporting the U.S. economy with exceptionally easy monetary policy. USD/JPY is also supported by positive USD sentiment from higher U.S. equities; demand from Japan importers, life insurers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and advancing.
Recommendation:
Buy above 98.9 with upside targets at 100 and 100.4.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 100
R2 - 100.4
R3 - 100.8
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 98.9 with downside targets at 98 and 97.15.
Support levels:
S1 - 98
S2 - 97.70 (Monday's low)
S3 - 97.15