Bitcoin did not live up to the bold hopes of the crypto community at the final stage of 2021. However, as the corrective movement ended in mid-February, crypto analysts were once again filled with optimism. Most forecasts boil down to two facts: Bitcoin has formed a local bottom at $32k and BTC is completing a trend reversal pattern. But are these facts enough to be sure of a coin rally in the spring?
Crypto analyst Lark Davis and trader with the nickname Trader XM are confident that the upside potential for Bitcoin in the spring is targeting the area above $60k. As an argument, experts cite the inverted "head and shoulders" formation, which I have repeatedly mentioned. Indeed, in the event of a breakout of the shoulder level, the pattern will be completed, which will mean a trend reversal.
If this scenario is confirmed, the price will gain upside potential by 26%, to the range of $63k-$65k. However, do not expect an immediate resumption of the upward movement of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is sensitive to stock markets and the situation with the dollar, and therefore investors will not rush to invest in BTC/USD until they get a vision of monetary policy in the near future.
With this in mind, I assume that the cryptocurrency will remain within the sideways movement in the $35k-$50k range until mid-March. The Fed will meet to raise the key rate on March 16, and this will be a difficult period for the stock markets, and hence Bitcoin. Despite the fact that the rate increase will be included in the price of indices, the market does not know the ultimate goal of the Fed, and therefore, before moving to the $63k-$65k area, the asset is waiting for a correction with a new monthly low. Subsequently, the market will begin to recover and BTC will continue to move to local highs.
Analyst PlanB has bounced back from a serious blow to reputation and announced a new forecast for BTC. The expert is sure that the coin will reach $100k, but in 2023. At the heart of its analysis method, PlanB continues to use the S2F model based on gold values. Not being a follower of distant forecasts, I want to say that there are no real prerequisites for a protracted bullish rally with the potential to set a new record in the $75k-$80k region in 2022.
I think the main reasons for this are the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, which will hinder the growth of the market. In 2022 alone, 7 key rate hikes are expected, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts. The second reason is the tightening of government regulation of cryptocurrencies. BTC will lose some markets, and some will find themselves in an unfavorable investment situation. Do not forget about the development of the DeFi and NFT sectors, to which bitcoin has little to do. The fall in market dominance is a direct consequence of the growth of these industries, which are reflected in the value of "ecosystem" altcoins.
