20.01.2023 11:00 AM
Bitcoin rose from the ashes

The crypto industry has two sides: scammers and suckers. When the first ones are exposed, they can organize a new project. But all this does not mean that it is impossible to earn money on cryptocurrencies. The 27% BTCUSD rally proves it can. Bitcoin posted the best weekly performance since February 2021 and simultaneously marked the longest rally since November 2013. If it closes January at current levels, it will be the second highest performance in history after a 31% rally in the first month of 2020.

Daily dynamics of Bitcoin

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The success of bulls on BTCUSD led to an increase in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector from $830 billion to $1 trillion. The figure is still very far from its peak of $3.2 trillion, which took place in November 2021, but fans of the token are sure: it's a bad start!

In fact, the nervousness that characterized the crypto market in 2022 did not disappear in 2023. Just as the news of the bankruptcy of FTX disturbed the minds of investors last year, now they are worried about a similar procedure from the crypto platform Genesis, a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group. You can convince yourself for a long time that Genesis is the last domino that fell after Terra, which initiated the contagion, and that its bankruptcy is already embedded in BTCUSD quotes, but is it really possible to believe this? Old scammers will find the opportunity to create new projects.

However, the Bitcoin rally convinces that people are more inclined to express "bearish" views but act bullish. On the Binance exchange, the average volume of transactions with the analyzed pair increased from $700 to $1,100, which may indicate that the whales are increasingly starting to look into the crypto market. It is not surprising because Bitcoin outperforms even perfectly starting gold, and the previous resistance in their ratio has turned into a powerful support. It seems that BTCUSD still found the bottom.

Dynamics of the Bitcoin-Gold Ratio

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In my opinion, the main driver of the rally of the leader of the cryptocurrency sector is the changed macroeconomic background. The slowdown in the rate of the Fed's monetary policy tightening inspires hope for a soft landing of the U.S. economy. Falling gas prices allow the European economy to pleasantly surprise everyone, including the ECB. Finally, the opening of China sets fans of earning assets in a positive mood. Money is flowing into stocks and bonds, as well as emerging markets. And Bitcoin is one of the main beneficiaries of improved global risk appetite.

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Its leadership is due to low expectations. The crypto winter, with its capitalization shrinking by more than $2 trillion and the BTCUSD quotes falling by 70%, has turned Bitcoin into a market of pessimists. When the weather improved a little, they immediately changed their shoes.

Technically, the exit of the analyzed asset from the consolidation range of 15,500–18,000 is a good sign for the bulls. They are in control. Consolidation of BTCUSD above the pivot points 20,590 and 20,670 is a confirmation of this. The rally risks restarting if it breaks above 21,200.

Marek Petkovich,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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