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30.03.2023 01:23 PM
Bank of England says the UK banking system is in good shape

Pound is ready to storm the March highs, all thanks to the recent statements of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He said the central bank is going to be very vigilant in the face of continued volatility and suggested that the market is testing banks to find weaknesses.

Earlier, many banks suffered as they were worried that they will see a similar collapse to that of several regional US banks. The demise of Credit Suisse and its purchase by UBS also shook markets.

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Bailey told the UK Treasury Select Committee that US authorities were dealing with specific issues relating to regional banks in the US and that Credit Suisse was an "institutional story", confirming that the UK banking system was in a strong position in terms of capital and liquidity and was not threatened by anything.

"I'm also thinking about what we saw at the end of last week, particularly on Friday, when there were some pretty sharp movements in the markets," he said. "It was all about testing the resilience of the global banking system. I would like to be wrong, but there are a lot of things being done at the moment that should not have been done."

Bailey also pointed out the differences between US and UK regulations regarding the treatment of interest rate risk. He said it caused the UK system to be less exposed than US regional banks.

He also supported the view of many experts that Credit Suisse's sale in Europe will clearly not cause new stresses in the global banking system. "I don't think there will be any problems in the future. But I want to let you know that we are very vigilant, and frankly we are in a period of very high stress and wariness," Bailey said.

The banking crisis had been caused by the Fed and other central banks around the world, as they have aggressively raised interest rates in recent years in an attempt to curb rapidly rising inflation. Their move led to tighter credit conditions, as well as lower bond portfolios on banks' balance sheets, making them vulnerable to the crisis.

Current technical picture shows that GBP/USD bulls are ready to keep storming the monthly highs, but the quote has to stay above 1.2280 and break through 1.2340. That will certainly prompt a rise to 1.2390 and 1.2450. Should bears take control of 1.2280, a breakdown will occur, which will push the pair down to 1.2220 and 1.2160.

In EUR/USD, bulls have all the chances to continue growth towards new March highs. But for this to happen, the quote has to stay above 1.0820. Only by that will the pair be able to go beyond 1.0870 and rise to 1.0900 and 1.0945. In case of a decline below 1.0820, the pair will approach 1.0780 and 1.0740.

Jakub Novak,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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