EUR/USD weekly forecast

EUR weekly key events for April 28-May 02

The euro holds a handful of events this week. These events can drive the currency sideways. For the last two weeks, EUR/USD is forming lower lows and lower highs and trading in a narrow range between 1.3864-1.3785 levels.

Tuesday- Spanish unemployment rate

German prelim CPI m/m

Wednesday- CPI flash estimates y/y

German retail sales m/m

French consumer spending m/m

Spanish flash GDP q/q

Thursday- Euro economies forecasts

Friday- Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI

Euro zone unemployment rate

Technical view-

Weekly basis (April 28- May 02)

In the weekly chart, the pair is forming a rising wedge pattern with the nearest support level at 1.3673 and the resistance levels at 1.3906 and 1.396. Currently, the pair is trading between 1.3864 and 1.3785 levels. On the up side, the pair has strong selling pressure at 1.3906, 1.3950 and 1.3965 levels. The pair will start its new bull run only above 1.40 levels; until it crosses this, sell on rally is the best strategy. For the month of May, the level of 1.3673 is the crucial level to hold for the bulls. In any situation, if this level breaks it will be in a panic mode up to 1.356 and 1.35 levels.

The key level for the bears and bulls is at 1.3906. Until the pair trades below this, bears will have the upper hand on a weekly basis. Sell on rallies is the best strategy for this week as well. For the last couple of weeks we have recommended selling until crossing above the 1.396/1.40 levels. We recommend it this week as well.

Positional - On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.38 levels (50SMA in the daily chart), in case of a break below this, 1.3785 is the immediate minor support. A day close below the 50SMa level, bulls will completely lose the grip for this week and bears will take it to 1.3785, 1.3737, 1.37, 1.3670, and 1.3643 levels. On the up side, we expect to pull back only above 1.3855 for 1.3864, 1.3906, 1.3950 and 1.3964 levels.

Intraday-

We expect the pair to be pulled back towards 1.3855, 1.3864, above 1.3864 it will fly up to 1.3906 levels. For intraday perspective buy with sl 1.3785 for targets 1.3845, 1.3855 and 1.3864. More upside is only above 1.3864 for 1.39 levels. Sell below 1.3785 for targets at 1.3762, 1.3737 and 1.37 levels.