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21.05.2014 04:41 AM
Medium-term forecast and intraday recommendations of USD/CAD for May 21, 2014

The Canadian wholesale sales decreased 0.4% to $50.5 billion in March after two monthly consecutive gains. The decline in sales was led by three sub sectors, mainly motor vehicles and parts subsector declined by 3%, the lowest level since September 2012. The core and retail sales are on tap on Thursday, Core CPI and CPI are due on Friday.

Short-term forecast-

The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.1279 levels. The short-term game changer level was placed at 1.1053 levels. Currently, the trading pattern was fixed between 1.0926-1.0850 levels. We can see a spike if it trades above 1.0926 (last week's high) up to 1.0990 (50.0 fib levels). The weekly oscillators are in selling zone, representing "selling the rally" strategy. On the down side, if the pair breaks the previous week's low, it will fall to 1.0814, 1.0738, 1.0672 and 1.063 levels. Until the pair crosses the 1.1053 levels, the downside target will look possible at 1.067 levels.

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In the daily chart, the pair broke the descending resistance line and closed above that. It is a bullish view in the near term. In today's trading session, as of now the pair was taking support at the descending trend line which add more fuel to the bulls. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.0912 levels. The near-term trading pattern will change once it crosses the 1.0926 levels. The daily RSI is in the "selling the rise" strategy, it didn't give a clear picture of breakout. Traders can wait patiently for clear confirmation. If the RSI gives a clear upside break, the pair can spike up to 1.0961 and 1.1 levels.

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Intraday-

The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.0926. We recommend to buy this pair only above 1.0926 for intraday targets at 1.0945 and 1.0952 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.0890 levels, below this, 1.0884 is the major support level. Below 1.0884, this pair will be on free fall mode to 1.0850 and 1.0814 levels.

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Recommendations-

Buy above 1.0926.

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