Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a three-week high at 101.94 on Friday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid the increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.18% to 12.69, S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 1,978.34 Friday) as the geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East and Ukraine, while caution sets in ahead of Wednesday's release of U.S. 2Q GDP data and Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.04 versus 80.86 early Friday) on expectations of a strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report this Friday after upbeat U.S. jobless claims data for the week ended July 19. FX reaction last Friday to a stronger-than-expected 0.7% rise in U.S. June durable goods orders (versus +0.5% forecast) was muted as details were weaker than the headline figure.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.25. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 100.95.

Resistance levels:
102
102.25
102.45

Support levels:
101.40
101.15
100.95