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22.05.2012 11:08 AM
Fundamental Analysis for May 22, 2012

 

What the Bank of Japan was looking for with little luck though for a long time, using different artificial mechanisms, happened due to the rating agency Fitch Ratings. Thus the aim to devalue the yen can be reached.
The yen fell unexpectedly in the Asian session on Tuesday, a move that is maintained in these hours, when Fitch cut the credit rating of Japan, and the negative outlook of the debt situation.
Besides, the Bank of Japan will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to determine probable stimuli for the local economy, which could extend the negative sentiment towards the yen.
This has a direct consequence: the yen might not be sought as a shelter for investors, as has happened so far, and in this case the dollar would take more force. So far, low European currencies had a positive effect on the yen, which has strengthened immediately. However, such measures could have an impact in the medium term, as also happened in his time with the Swiss franc.
Gold also could benefit from a lower yen, and if so, the Australian dollar could be bought by the operators.
On another note, the rate of consumer inflation in the UK showed an increase slightly less than expected, but it served to derail the pound, which came with difficulty recovering positions in recent days, alongside the euro. The British currency is close to 1.5730.
The euro, meanwhile, fell back and in the short term trend has become bearish, but its low does not seem sustainable over time. Only the break of 1.27 could accelerate a larger drop of the single currency, which has more prospects for recovery in the coming days.
Similar scenario can be observed as to the Australian dollar, after the price made a pullback to a trendline broken on Monday. The Aussie could take hold in the coming hours, looking back to parity against the dollar. Its referent, gold, also trades with a slightly upward trend, despite the drop in the European session.
As the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, linked to gold, do not define a short-term trend, while the Loonie is somewhat weaker in the short term. Meanwhile, the currency of Mexico could regain some of its losses in recent days, that had taken it about 14 pesos per dollar. The goal for the day is at the order of 13.5350.
For the American session, the most important data to follow is that existing home sales, at 10:00 Eastern. No significant changes are expected over the previous measurement.

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