Global macro overview for 21/09/2015

Saudi Arabia led the OPEC earlier this year to boosting production to keep market share amid a global oversupply concerns. As a result, its oil stockpiles rose to a new record high in July this year. According to the website of the Riyadh-based Joint Organizations Data Initiative, the petroleum inventories rose from 319.5 mln barrels to 320 mln barrels and crude oil exports decreased to 7.28 mln barrels a day from 7.9 mln barrels in March 2015. It seems the crude oil and other commodities market can not overcome the glut of supply and the prices for commodities like crude oil might fall even lower to the levels below $30 a barrel in the long-term.

The daily chart of crude oil shows that the market is trading inside the congestion area between the 23% and 36% Fibonacci retracement of the previous swing low. The price is currently below the 200-day moving average and as long as the level of 49.54 is violated, the long-term outlook is still bearish.