Overview

A temporary low is in place at 117.32 and intraday bias is neutral for the moment. A break of the 119.69 resistance is needed to indicate short-term bottoming. Otherwise, the outlook will stay bearish and a deeper fall is still expected to the 116.13 key support level. At this point, we expect a strong support from there to bring a rebound. Price actions from 125.85 are still viewed as a sideway consolidation pattern. Nonetheless, a sustained break of 116.13 will indicate that it is a deeper medium-term correction. The consolidation pattern from the 125.85 medium-term top is still in progress. In case of a deeper fall, we expect a strong support between the 116.13 and 38.2% retracement of 101.08 to 125.85 at 116.38 to contain the downside. An eventual break of 125.85 is still anticipated at a later stage. Nonetheless, a sustained break of the 116.13/38 zone will indicate that the corrective fall from 125.85 would extend to 38.2% retracement of 75.56 (the low of 2011) to 125.85 at 106.63.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.07; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.50