01.02.2023: Fed meeting in focus. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
20.03.2023: Wall Street still digesting turbulent weekend.
2023-03-20 19:28 UTC+3
20.03.2023: Banking crisis worries persist. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-03-20 17:31 UTC+3
20.03.2023: Investors prefer European currencies to USD.
2023-03-20 16:32 UTC+3
20.03.2023: USD bulls in control despite downward movement (USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD)
2023-03-20 15:38 UTC+3
17.03.2023: Storm calms down but jitters still simmering.
2023-03-17 20:27 UTC+3
17.03.2023: USD declines amid increased risk appetite; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-03-17 16:10 UTC+3
17.03.2023: Markets expect fresh signs of recession in US.
2023-03-17 14:17 UTC+3
17.03.2023: ECB stokes recession fears. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-03-17 13:59 UTC+3
16.03.2023: Wall Street soothing its nerves after several volatile sessions.
2023-03-16 20:09 UTC+3
16.03.2023: Oil prices sink on banking fears. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-03-16 16:38 UTC+3
16.03.2023: How ECB may react to banking crisis?
2023-03-16 16:34 UTC+3
16.03.2023: Investors cast doubt on USD as safe-haven asset (USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD)
2023-03-16 16:05 UTC+3
15.03.2023: Wall Street braces for market turbulence.
2023-03-15 21:09 UTC+3
15.03.2023: US banking crisis spreads to Europe. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-03-15 16:57 UTC+3
15.03.2023: USD climbs despite improved sentiment in Wall Street. (USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD)
2023-03-15 16:15 UTC+3
15.03.2023: USD to resume falling? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-03-15 16:01 UTC+3
14.03.2023: Wall Street indices growing amid market turmoil.
2023-03-14 23:36 UTC+3
14.03.2023: Oil prices weighed down by fears of broader financial crisis. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-03-14 17:50 UTC+3
14.03.2023: Stock markets gripped by uncertainty; USD slightly rises. USDX, USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD
2023-03-14 16:14 UTC+3
14.03.2023: UDS weakens amid Fed’s measures?
2023-03-14 15:46 UTC+3
13.03.2023: Markets remain under pressure amid increased volatility.
2023-03-13 20:25 UTC+3
Today, as over the past few trading sessions, the key factor determining further dynamics in the financial markets is the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting. Both the regulator’s decision on interest rates and comments on its further policy steps are in the focus of market participants.
If Jerome Powell once again excludes possible interest rate cuts this year, the US currency will most likely edge higher in the long term. This in turn will lead to a decline in all other financial instruments, including commodity assets. The likelihood of this happening is pretty high. After all, the head of the Fed said the same thing following the previous board meeting. If there are no hawkish comments, this will signal an early start of monetary policy easing. In this case, the dollar will come under strong pressure.
Under such conditions, oil will have every chance of rising above $90 per barrel.
In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures are pulling back from a two-week low. Despite oversold conditions, the downtrend remains intact. However, things can change if the price breaks above 87.50. In this case, the asset is expected to hit a new local high of the ascending cycle. Alternatively, the volume of short positions will increase further if the price returns below the 84 mark.
Speaking of gold, the situation is similar. The only difference is that its reaction to the Fed’s meeting is likely to be more pronounced. After all, gold is a safe-haven asset. This makes it more vulnerable to changes in interest rate levels which reflect government bond yields. So Powell’s speech can either lead to a sharp drop in gold prices below $1,900 per ounce, followed by a steady move towards $1,800 per ounce, or drive the metal up to $2,000 per ounce, or even above.
In this situation, if the quote rises and consolidates above the level of 1,935, gold will most likely gain strong upside momentum and may even hit a new local high.
Unlike many other instruments that have shown sufficient trading activity in recent days, the ruble is clearly stabilizing around 70 rubles per dollar. The volume of long positions decreased slightly near 70.85, which resulted in a pullback. Nevertheless, the dollar/ruble pair held steady above 70. If the price consolidates above this mark, the greenback will gain value.
An alternative scenario will be relevant in case the price returns below 69 on the daily chart.
The ruble is heavily dependent on political factors that are expected to adjust its reaction to the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. In addition, the reaction itself will be short-lived. Political events, in particular the sanctions regime, are far more important for the Russian currency. To the surprise of Western countries, a wall of sanctions has not yet led to a collapse of the Russian economy.
Even the International Monetary Fund has recently acknowledged that the Russian economy is likely to see a small expansion this year. Furthermore, no fresh tough sanctions are foreseen. Thus, the ruble has solid upside potential in the long run.
Of course, if Jerome Powell excludes possible rate reductions, the ruble may slide today, or rather tomorrow. But a downtrend will not last long. If the US central bank signals the need to start easing monetary policy, the dollar will immediately dip to the 68 mark.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

00:00 Introduction
00:25 Market developments depending on Powell's statements
01:00 Brent
01:36 Gold
02:29 USD/RUB
03:07 What the ruble exchange rate depends on
03:33 Sanctions, the IMF and Russia's growth outlook
03:51 Powell and the Ruble
04:11 Conclusion


FX Analytics - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analytics
Forex Calendar - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_calendar
Forex TV from InstaForex - https://www.instaforex.com/instaforex_tv

Forex charts - https://www.instaforex.com/charts
Instant account opening - https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_live_account
Forex Trading Contests - https://www.instaforex.com/forex_contests

List of official InstaForex blogs:

#commodity_market #oil #instaforex_tv
Calendar and reviews
Trader’s calendar on March 20-22: What shapes USD more: banking crisis or Federal Reserve?
Trader’s calendar on March 16-17: USD losing bullish momentum?
Trader’s calendar on March 9-10: What can be more serious than Fed Chair’s testimony?
Trader’s calendar on March 6-8:Global central banks still considering future monetary policy changes
Trader’s calendar on March 2-3: US economy losing momentum, but USD extending its growth.
Trader’s calendar on February 27-March 1: China leads, US heads for recession.
Editor's choice
Being a participant of Dakar Rally 2012, that took place in Argentina, Chili and Peru, InstaForex Company also decided to visit Brazil, Rio de Janeiro in particular, which is one of the financial centres in Latin America. Rio can be included in the geography of the partner representative offices of the broker. A trip to Brazil coincided with New Year’s Day, that was celebrated by the representatives of the company in accord to the Brazilian tradition – on the beach where they threw white roses into the ocean waves so that success always waited upon the broker’s clients.
Oleg Taktarov, sportsman, actor, and showman, talks about his career (Kaliningrad)
Trader’s calendar on March 20-22: What shapes USD more: banking crisis or Federal Reserve?
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • إيداع الحظ
    قم بإيداع 3,000 دولار في حسابك واحصل على $5,000 وأكثر من ذالك!
    في مارس نحن نقدم باليانصيب $5,000 ضمن حملة إيداع الحظ!
    احصل على فرصة للفوز من خلال إيداع 3,000 دولار في حساب تداول. بعد أن استوفيت هذا الشرط، تصبح مشاركًا في الحملة.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • تداول بحكمة، اربح جهازا
    قم بتعبئة حسابك بمبلغ لا يقل عن 500 دولار ، واشترك في المسابقة ، واحصل على فرصة للفوز بأجهزة الجوال.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • بونص 100٪
    فرصتك الفريدة للحصول على بونص 100٪ على إيداعك
    احصل على بونص
  • بونص 55٪
    تقدم بطلب للحصول على بونص 55٪ على كل إيداع
    احصل على بونص
  • بونص 30٪
    احصل على بونص 30٪ في كل مرة تقوم فيها بتعبئة حسابك
    احصل على بونص
لا تستطيع التحدث الآن؟
اطرح سؤالك في الدردشة.