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27.07.2022 03:53 PM
欧元/美元对概览。 7 月 27 日。今天是大家期待已久的——美联储会议。

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周二,欧元/美元货币对再次尝试超过穆雷水平"4/8"或 1.0254。再次,失败。之后,它显着跌破移动平均线。因此,不管听起来如何,这次我们的假设是正确的。我们经常讨论欧洲货币的疲软及其无法定期做出反应的问题。在长达 1.5 年多的低迷期中,最大的修正约为 400 点。尽管在此期间下跌了 2,300 点,但该货币对突破了 20 年低点并跌破了与美元的平价。从本周一开始,我们一直预计欧元会下跌。今天美联储会议的结论将在美国进行总结,而这次会议可能是几十年来最激进的一次。但是,我们将在下面进一步讨论这个问题。应该强调的是,尽管欧洲央行做出了努力,但它仍大大落后于美联储。即使是立即提高 0.5% 的利率也不足以维持欧洲货币。交易员只是提前模拟了最乐观的情况。因此,当调查结果公布时,欧元没有上涨(情绪激动除外)。
剩下的因素呢?它们要么不存在,要么保持不变。我们认为地缘政治和"基础"是过去六个月欧元贬值的两个主要原因。欧洲央行和美联储的货币政策所说的"基础"是直截了当的,胜利者是明白无误的。关于地缘政治,自乌克兰武装冲突持续并可能持续多年以来,一切都没有改变。 APU已经在南部发起反攻,并逐渐逼近赫尔松。西方武器流入乌克兰的数量还没有达到洪水的数量,但它继续定期到达。欧盟和美国继续提供财政、人道主义和军事援助。
欧元再次走向 1.0000 或更低的水平。
只需确定改变今晚将宣布的美联储货币政策的可能性。基本上只有两个。并且基于该货币对的当前走势,我们认为市场认为它们之间没有显着差异。再次提醒我们,欧洲央行可能会加息 0.25 个百分点或 0.5 个百分点。看起来这两种选择非常不同,但市场在宣布会议结果前三四天就开始买入欧元。在我熟悉了他们之后,我什么也没做。今天,我们可以观察到大致相同的事情。昨天美元开始缓慢上涨,如果今天的涨幅只有0.75%,交易者不太可能急于卖出。应该理解的是,0.75%的加息已经是美联储有史以来的最高利率之一。如果它增长 1%,那么正如他们所说,差异可以忽略不计。无论如何,我们正在讨论显着收紧货币政策,这不能不增加美元的价值。 FOMC 利率今天可能升至 2.5-2.75%,而欧洲央行利率为 0.5%。有了这些投入,哪种货币应该经历增长?
此外,技术原因继续利好美元。请记住,COT 数据表明每周的前景更加"悲观"。在过去的两周里,欧元已经证明其价格不能上涨超过 300 点。这两个事实说明了什么?只有市场参与者拒绝购买欧元。如果他们有正当理由拒绝这样做,那么当他们有正当理由购买一美元时他们会怎么做?重要的是要记住,市场对美联储会议的反应可能无法预测。但是,我们继续研究这个问题并强调最可能的结果。我们预测该货币对将恢复价格平价并创下 20 年新低。

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截至7月26日,欧元/美元货币对在前五个交易日的平均波幅为115点,属于"高位"。因此,我们预计该货币对今天将在
1.0001 和
1.0231 之间交易。
Heiken Ashi 指标的向上反转表明向上修正。
最近的支撑位:
S1 – 1.0132
S2 – 1.0010
S3 – 0.9888
最近的阻力位:
R1 – 1.0254
R2 – 1.0376
R3 – 1.0498
交易建议:
欧元/美元正试图恢复其长期下跌。因此,在
Heiken Ashi 信号反转方向之前,维持目标在
1.0010 和
1.0001 之间的空头头寸至关重要。当固定在移动平均线上方,目标为
1.0254 和
1.0376 时,买入该货币对将恢复有意义。
对数字的解释:
线性回归通道——有助于确定当前趋势。如果两者都朝着相同的方向发展,那么现在趋势很强劲。
移动平均线(设置
20.0,平滑)——确定当前的短期趋势和交易方向。
默里水平作为移动和校正目标。
波动率水平(红线)代表根据当前波动率指标,该货币对将在下一个交易日内交易的预期价格通道。
CCI 指标 –
进入超卖区域(低于
-250)或超买区域(高于
+250)表明趋势反转即将到来。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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