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29.03.2023: USD may drop again? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
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During the recent three days, the euro and the pound sterling were gaining in value. Although the rise was not rapid, the British pound reached a new local high.
The process could not last forever amid the absence of macroeconomic factors. Announcements made by the ECB’s officials and news about the settlement of the US banking crisis were the only drivers of the growth in the currencies.
Regional US lender First Citizens BancShares acquired failed Silicon Valley Bank, thus boosting appetite for risk assets.
What is more, traders are waiting for the publication of important data on the eurozone inflation, which is due on Friday. Against the backdrop, the euro is likely to go on rising against the greenback as differences between the stance of the ECB and the Fed will increase.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank intended to return inflation to the target level. To do so, the European Central Bank will have to develop a compromise solution. Meanwhile, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Isabel Schnabel stated that the ECB might search for new ways to manage liquidity in the banking sector and short-term interest rates in the market.

In this light, the euro continues gaining in value against the US dollar after it consolidated above 1.0800. Although the euro has been climbing for two days in a row, it has not recovered after the recent slump. Nevertheless, the consolidation above 1.0800 points to a rise in the volume of long positions.
If the quote manages to stay above 1.0800 for a longer period, it is likely to reach a new weekly high above 1.0900. However, if the price fixes below 1.0800 on the daily chart, we may see a new downward cycle.

Meanwhile, the pound sterling managed to recover against the US dollar and reached a new weekly high. This is reflecting buyers’ intention to push the price higher.
If the British pound consolidates above 1.2350, the volume of long positions will surge. Traders should take in mind that the quote is just one step away from the local high of the mid-term uptrend, which is located near 1.2400/1.2450. Even if the pair continues its growth, it is expected to be limited.


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00:00 INTRO
00:13 Announcements made by the ECB’s officials
00:31 Boosting appetite for risk assets
01:04 ECB’S KEY INTEREST RATE
01:35 EUR | USD
02:18 GBP | USD
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