Since the macroeconomic calendar was absolutely empty, the euro returned to its local high and may climb even higher. The rise could be triggered by the US statistical reports.
The GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be of the greatest importance. The initial estimate is likely to show a slowdown to 1.6% from 1.9% per annum. This could hardly be considered a positive factor for the greenback. Since there are more and more rumors about an inevitable recession, a slowdown in economic growth may only fuel fears. That is why the GDP data is enough to spur a further decline in the US dollar.
What is more, forecasts for the US unemployment claims are also gloomy. Thus, the overall number of claims may increase by 16,000. In particular, the number of initial claims may surge by 12,000, whereas the number of continuing claims may increase by 4,000.
In other words, all the forecasts are negative. If the predictions come true, the euro will soar to new local highs. What do we see on the trading charts ahead of the US trade?

The number of long positions on the euro resumed rising. As a result, the quote approached the local high.
If the price consolidates above 1.0940 at least on the four-hour chart, the volume of long positions will increase. In this case, the mid-term uptrend is likely to continue, allowing the pair to approach the psychological level of 1.1000.

Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair rebounded from 1.2300 and returned to the local high of the uptrend. This points to the bullish sentiment among traders, which prevents the price from a full-scale correction.
Under the current conditions, the price should consolidate above 1.2440 at least on the four-hour chart to continue the mid-term uptrend. This will allow the pair to climb at least to 1.2500.
Otherwise, the price may bounce off the resistance level of 1.2440 toward the level of 1.2300.



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00:00 INTRO
00:15 The GDP data
00:47 The US unemployment claims
01:17 EUR/USD
01:43 GBP/USD