Tonight it will be announced whether the historic vote for the Brexit draft will take place on December 11 in the British Parliament or will the government withdraw this issue from tomorrow's agenda. Around 16: 30 London time, the prime minister will speak to parliamentarians with an "important statement, which is dedicated to the exit of Britain from the EU." What exactly Theresa May will say is unknown, but given the preceding rumors, we can draw the appropriate conclusions.
The fact is that on the eve of tomorrow's vote in the press there was quite alarming information – allegedly the prime minister convened an extraordinary meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, where members of the government will discuss the only question – whether the draft deal on Brexit will be supported or it is necessary to take emergency measures to prevent the disaster. The information space is flooded with various and contradictory rumors - some say that the prime minister is categorically set for tomorrow's vote, while other sources assure that the vote will be canceled. The pound reacts accordingly: in a pair with the dollar, the British currency updated its annual lows, heading to the bottom of the 26th figure. And if today Theresa May confirms the worst fears, the pound will collapse even more - the nearest strongest resistance level is at 1,2405 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart).
Both the opponents of the British prime minister and her supporters are well aware that if the deputies do not support the proposed deal, they will actually open the way to a "hard" Brexit, with all the ensuing consequences. Labour and some conservatives are trying to lobby for alternative scenarios, thus justifying their position.
In particular, it is a question of holding a second referendum or additional consultations with Brussels. But all the proposed options have significant flaws. The fact is that Europe is persistently repeating the same thesis: the terms of the deal will not be revised under any conditions – neither in the case of another referendum, nor in the case of a failed vote. Brussels categorically rejects the possibility of additional negotiations in any form, under any pretext. Here it is worth recalling that during the two-year negotiation process, the countries of the Alliance have demonstrated surprising cohesion, so at this stage the EU will also defend a principled position.
On the one hand, this fact provides indirect support to Theresa May – because her "strategy of persuasion" is based on the lack of alternatives to the agreement reached. On the other hand, this approach really opens the way to chaotic Brexit – because all other options are actually non-viable. In particular, the second referendum is categorically opposed by Theresa May – but if it is still held (and the British re-support the exit from the EU), Brussels will still remain on its positions in future negotiations. Other alternative scenarios also have significant political and/or legal weaknesses.
And yet, despite this state of affairs, opponents of the draft deal have enough opposition – and therefore not enough allies. If Theresa May cancels the vote today, she actually admits the fact that she failed to convince her opponents. In this case, this issue will be postponed for an indefinite period, perhaps the prime minister will take a wait-and-see position for several weeks, during which he will hold consultations with the deputies. The prime minister still has time – the deadline for the adoption of an appropriate decision by the British Parliament is January 21. But the piquancy of the situation is that Theresa May de jure cannot single-handedly cancel the vote on this issue – for this she needs the support of the Cabinet. Therefore, the intrigue of today's speech is not only in the position of the prime minister, but also in the position of the government as a whole.
It is noteworthy that the next summit of EU countries will take place on December 13-14 in Brussels, where Theresa May will go "with a shield or on a shield." It is likely that today the prime minister will tell parliamentarians that she will make a last attempt to bargain with her European colleagues any concessions and therefore postpone the vote. But, taking into account the reinforced concrete position of Brussels, such a political maneuver can be considered obviously losing.
Thus, in the next few hours, it will become clear whether May dares to go to a vote or the situation remains in limbo for several more weeks. The reaction of the pound is difficult to predict – everything will depend on the accompanying rhetoric of the prime minister. In any case, the pound remains the most unreliable currency – pairs involving this currency are now characterized by unpredictability and volatility.
