4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p - 58p - 42p - 61p - 56p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 52p (48p).

On Monday, March 4th, the EUR/USD currency pair shows a rather strong downward movement. It seems that traders were filled with rather modest purchases of the European currency and once again came to the conclusion that there were no compelling reasons for mid-term and long-term purchases of the euro. Today there was not a single important macroeconomic report published in the eurozone or the United States. There were no speeches by Trump or other top US or EU leaders. However, today there is information that the United States and China are close to signing a trade agreement that will end the trade war. It is noted that China will reduce tariffs on agricultural products, chemical and automotive, and the United States will lift most of the sanctions on Chinese goods, which were introduced last year. Also among the agreements is a deal on China's purchase of natural gas from one of the US companies. The agreement is expected to be signed before the end of March. Against this background, the US dollar may show growth, since, by and large, this indicates Donald Trump's victory. The leader of the United States has achieved the conditions necessary for his country, without sacrificing anything. From a technical point of view, a new "dead cross" has been formed, and if the pair succeeds in overcoming the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud and the support level of 1.1321, then the pair will get an additional opportunity to move down. Theoretically, the ECB meeting on Wednesday and the press conference could save the euro from a prolonged fall, but the chances that representatives of the regulator will be hawkish are extremely small.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a downward movement. Therefore, at the moment it is recommended to consider short positions with a target of 1.1277. And in the event of a reversal of the MACD indicator upwards, manually reduce the sell orders.

Purchase orders will again become relevant no earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen critical line. In this case, the actual target for the longs will be the resistance level of 1.1414.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.