The euro/dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed low volatility of 43 points, as a result forming a pullback to the recently passed level of 1.1300. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after the rapid upward move, which led us to the value of 1.1338, the rollback phase came, which logically returned us to 1.1300. The news background continues to be filled with a divorce agreement, where a vote was once again passed yesterday in the British Parliament regarding the postponement of the date of the country's withdrawal from the European Union. The results of the vote were in fact evident on Wednesday, as soon as the vote on the NO to the hard exit was passed. Most of the deputies of the House of Commons (412 people) were in favor of postponing Brexit, 202 deputies voted against it. If before March 20, parliamentarians vote for an agreement with the EU, then the British government should send a request to Brussels for a technical delay until June 30. After this, the changes are to be agreed upon by the 27 member countries of the association. In turn, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who threatened the European Union with tough economic measures and new tariffs, did not miss the opportunity to introduce his "I", if the EU does not enter into a trade agreement with the US.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar , inflation data in Europe has already been released, where there is an increase from 1.4% to 1.5%. In the afternoon, we are waiting for data on the United States regarding industrial production, where they expect a slowdown from 3.5% to 3.5%.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is quite saturated with statistical data. We are waiting for the Fed meeting, and another vote in the British Parliament. Below, I have selected the most significant events. We also do not forget about the information background, which spontaneously takes off on the market and brings us a new round of volatility.
Tuesday
EU 13:00 MSK - Salary level (y / y) (4 sq.)
United States 17:00 MSK - Volume of industrial orders (m / m) (Jan): Prev. 0.1% ---> Forecast -0.5%
Wednesday
United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC press conference
Voting in the UK Parliament under the Brexit Agreement
Friday
EU 12:00 MSK - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Mar): Prev. 49.3 ---> Forecast 49.5
EU 12:00 MSK - Prev. Index of Business Services (Mar): Prev. 52.8 ---> Forecast 52.5
United States 17:00 MSK - Sales on the secondary housing market (Feb): Prev. 4.94M ---> Forecast 5.10M
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the level of 1.1300 plays the role of support, pushing the quote to the recent resistance point in the face of the value 1.1338. Probably, we suggest the formation of a time amplitude of 1.1300 / 1.1340, where traders analyze the boundaries for breakdown.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of fixation higher than 1.1340, with the prospect of 1.1370-1.1400.
- Positions for sale are considered already after a clear price fixing lower than 1.1300.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we see that in the short and intraday perspective, there is an upward interest against the background of the current level of 1.1300 and the general upward trend. For a long time, the medium-term outlook changed interest from descending to neutral.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 14, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 25 points. If the quotes are clamped in the range of 1.1300 / 1.1340, the volatility will remain low.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214; 1.1120; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
