empty
 
 

Analisis Forex & Kajian: EURUSD: US GDP satisfied the markets, but Trump is not enough
time 29.07.2019 09:57 AM
time Relevance up to, 30.07.2019 09:44 AM

The US dollar continued to strengthen against a number of world currencies, especially against the British pound, which is under serious pressure due to Brexit, after it became known on Friday about the final formation of the British Cabinet of Ministers, which mainly includes people who are set to a tough scenario for Brexit.

The European currency also missed a number of positions after the release of a good report on the growth of the US economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, which was due to a major increase in consumer spending.

This image is no longer relevant

According to the US Department of Commerce, in the 2nd quarter of this year, the US economy grew by 2.1% per annum after growing by 3.1% in the 1st quarter of this year. On the one hand, there is a clear slowdown due to the growth of foreign trade tensions and the slowdown of the world economy. On the other hand, the indicator was much better than the forecasts of economists who expected GDP growth to be 1.8% per annum.

The main problem, which now significantly affects the slowdown in economic growth in the United States, is a sharp drop in investment by companies. Thus, the capital investments of companies in the 2nd quarter of 2019 decreased by 0.6% after an increase of 4.4% in the 1st quarter.

However, as noted above, the sharp increase in consumer spending has provided significant support to the economy. Americans continue to spend money and make purchases due to very low unemployment and rising incomes. According to the data, consumer spending increased in the 2nd quarter of this year by 4.3% per annum after an increase of 1.1% per annum in the previous quarter. Government spending also increased by more than 5.0%.

This image is no longer relevant

Immediately after the release of the report, the American president made several statements, noting the fact that GDP growth is not bad, given the Fed's interest rate policy, but once again blamed the Central Bank for weak economic growth after the first quarter. And all because of the policy of high-interest rates. Trump called the Central Bank of the United States "a cargo hanging on our neck."

As for the data on the price index of spending on personal consumption of RFE, in the 2nd quarter of 2019, it increased by 2.3% per annum. The US Department of Commerce said that this is the highest value for more than a year. The core index rose by 1.8%.

If we take together Friday's reports, they are very good news for the Federal Reserve System, which in the course of a two-day meeting, the results of which will be known on Wednesday, may signal a decrease in interest rates in the near future. The main problem is low inflation, which falls short of the target of 2%, as well as foreign trade relations, which constrain the potential growth of the economy, which negatively affects business confidence.

On Friday, a report was also published, according to which the indicator of activity in the service sector in the zone of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in July of this year decreased. Expectations for future activity also deteriorated.

According to Fed-Kansas City, the index for services in July fell to -1 point after 1 in June this year and 15 points in May.

As with a number of other economic indicators, the main pressure on the index was exerted by the increased uncertainty around the economic prospects due to weak domestic demand and problems in foreign trade.

On Friday, little support was provided by statements by Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, who assured that the United States, unlike other countries, would not intervene in the markets in order to lower its currency exchange rate. It has long been thought that while Trump cannot get the Fed to lower interest rates, the White House administration may go for a number of tweaks to try to lower the dollar in some other way.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further prospect of its decline remains quite high, but traders will gradually take profit at each new minimum before a very important meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Support for the bulls will have a large level of 1.1100, while the upper resistance range is seen in the area of 1.1190. Most likely, in this range and trade will unfold at the beginning of this week. If the bears fail to break below the intermediate level of 1.1120, the bulls may try to break above the resistance of 1.1150, from which the main downward movement was formed last Friday.

Dapatkan manfaat daripada cadangan penganalisis sekarang
Menambah semula akaun dagangan
Buka akaun dagangan

Kajian analisis InstaForex akan membuat anda mengetahui sepenuhnya aliran pasaran! Sebagai pelanggan InstaForex, anda disediakan sejumlah besar perkhidmatan percuma untuk dagangan yang cekap.

  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Daftar untuk peraduan dan tambah dana akaun anda dengan sekurang-kurangnya AS$ 500 untuk layak memenangi peranti mudah alih.
    SERTAI PERADUAN
  • Ferrari dari InstaForex
    Sertai peraduan dan menangi Ferrari F8 Tributo dengan
    mendepositkan sekurang-kurangnya AS$ 1,000
    ke dalam akaun anda
    SERTAI PERADUAN
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit akaun anda dengan AS$ 3,000 dan menangi AS$1,000
    SERTAI PERADUAN
  • Bonus 100%
    Peluang istimewa anda untuk menerima bonus 100% pada deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • Bonus 55%
    Dapatkan bonus 55% pada setiap deposit anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS
  • Bonus 30%
    Dapatkan bonus 30% setiap kali anda membuat penambahan dana akaun anda
    DAPATKAN BONUS

Recommended Stories

Emas meningkat kepada $3,000 seauns

Emas melonjak hampir $200 seauns daripada paras rendah November, dan dengan menjangkakan statistik penting mengenai inflasi AS dan mesyuarat Fed, pembeli memutuskan untuk menetapkan sebahagian daripada keuntungan. Ini membawa kepada

Marek Petkovich 12:16 2022-12-07 UTC+2

ECB sedang mempertimbangkan pengetatan kuantitatif

Euro diniagakan kukuh pada hari Selasa berikutan khabar angin bahawa ECB sedang mempertimbangkan dengan serius cara untuk menghapuskan kunci kira-kira bon €5 trilion secepat mungkin. Walau bagaimanapun, ini tidak menjejaskan

Jakub Novak 12:09 2022-12-07 UTC+2

Fed tidak mempunyai sebarang alasan untuk meneruskan kenaikan kadar yang agresif

Pasaran dipengaruhi oleh kebimbangan yang semakin meningkat bahawa Fed akan mengubah fikirannya mengenai kadar faedah berikutan data positif baru-baru ini mengenai ekonomi AS. Mereka bimbang bahawa kenaikan itu akan sekali

Pati Gani 11:19 2022-12-07 UTC+2

Pasangan EUR/USD: Euro memulihkan kedudukan kenaikan harga

Pecutan aktiviti perniagaan dalam sektor perkhidmatan AS daripada ISM menyebabkan pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mengalami kejatuhan, tetapi semasa sesi dagangan Eropah, euro mula pulih. Ini berlaku disebabkan oleh pertumbuhan dalam

Marek Petkovich 02:07 2022-12-07 UTC+2

Pasaran bimbang bahawa Fed akan mendesak kenaikan kadar faedah yang agresif

Pasaran jatuh pada hari Isnin disebabkan kebimbangan bahawa pasaran buruh yang kukuh dan keadaan ekonomi AS yang baik mungkin bukan sahaja mendorong Fed untuk meneruskan kenaikan kadar faedah yang agresif

Pati Gani 11:16 2022-12-06 UTC+2

ECB dan Bank of England cenderung untuk mencontohi tindakan Fed tanpa menunggu Fed melakukannya terlebih dahulu.

Selepas beberapa hari yang sama aneh, hari Isnin adalah yang palig pelik. Ramai orang sudah bingung mengapa euro dan pound terus meningkat walaupun pada hari-hari tanpa alasan. Jika hampir semua

Chin Zhao 08:24 2022-12-06 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Gambaran keseluruhan untuk 6 Disember. Adakah pound British mempunyai masa depan yang cerah?

Pada Isnin, pasangan mata wang GBP/USD juga mula menyesuaikan diri selepas euro. Kecuali untuk laporan jualan runcit, yang hanya digunakan untuk Kesatuan Eropah, pound British mempunyai asas yang sama seperti

Paolo Greco 04:34 2022-12-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Gambaran keseluruhan untuk 6 Disember. Fed akan mengekalkan kadar pada tahap maksimum untuk sekurang-kurangnya 18 bulan.

Pada hari Isnin, pasangan mata wang EUR/USD membuat pelarasan kecil tetapi masih di atas garis moving average. Akibatnya, kita hanya boleh membincangkan pembalikan semula, bukan pembetulan. Terdapat sebab yang

Paolo Greco 03:51 2022-12-06 UTC+2

Peningkatan dalam pasaran terhenti menjelang mesyuarat Fed

Sekiranya minggu lepas didorong oleh berita bercanggah dari AS, minggu ini berkemungkinan dirangsang oleh penyata Fed, atau kekurangannya, yang biasa sebelum mesyuarat dasar monetari bank pusat. Pada awalnya, pasaran tertumpu

Pati Gani 11:09 2022-12-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD memperoleh semula kedudukan menaik, dolar hanya tinggal satu peluang

Pasaran lebih suka melemparkan sasaran terlebih dahulu dan berfikir kemudian. Jika tidak, mereka akan terlepas masa itu. Apabila Presiden ECB Christine Lagarde berkata bahawa bank pusat harus meneruskan dasar yang

Marek Petkovich 10:35 2022-12-05 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.