4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 64p - 62p - 30p - 55p - 64p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 55p (average).
The EUR/USD currency pair continues its upward movement on October 17. In the morning, there were no macroeconomic publications in the European Union, so the current strengthening of the euro currency can only be associated with Brexit, or rather with the EU summit, where negotiations on the "deal" continued. It so happened that many experts considered the whole procedure of Brexit only in the context of the UK and the pound. However, this is a bilateral deal, which is also of great importance for the European Union. We listed why Britain is unprofitable to leave the EU without an agreement. However, no one has ever noted that the same applies to the European Union. In itself, the loss of one of the member states, and even with one of the strongest economies, cannot but affect the entire economy of the European Union. The latest macroeconomic publications in Europe perfectly show that the economy is in an outright recession, and the "hard" Brexit scenario could only exacerbate all the existing problems. Perhaps this is the reason that European leaders still made concessions to Boris Johnson. From the very beginning, the European Union has held the position "A tough Brexit is disadvantageous for everyone, but it will do more damage to the UK." It seems like it was a bluff. Perhaps this was understood by Boris Johnson, or perhaps he was bluffing himself, saying daily that Britain would leave the EU before October 31, no matter what, under any scenario. One way or another, on the one hand, London and Brussels are close to signing an agreement and orderly divorce as never before, and, on the other hand, the British Parliament can easily block this deal if it considers it unprofitable for the country. Thus, the current victory of Boris Johnson is not final. The full results can be summed up on Saturday when the UK Parliament will get acquainted with the terms of the agreement and will vote for a "deal" with the Alliance. According to recent reports, the Democratic Unionist Party refuses to accept the terms of the agreement reached with Brussels. Well, there is no need to speak about a hypothetical distribution of votes among parliamentarians, since none of them knows all the details of the agreement. Thus, all the time until Saturday, the British Prime Minister needs to spend on convincing as many deputies as possible to accept his version of the agreement, otherwise Brexit risks being rescheduled again.
Well, today was another positive day for the euro currency, although it should be recognized that the euro usually did not react to any news regarding Brexit. But such a significant event as the coming to a consensus of London and Brussels after months of negotiations, could not be ignored by the European traders. During the day, the euro/dollar pair worked out the second resistance level of 1.1136 and rebounded from it. You should wait until the end of today to understand exactly whether the current pullback is temporary or traders are ready for a downward correction. Plus today, data on industrial production in the US for September will be released. Although this report is not significant, a strong deviation of the real value from the forecast can still provoke a reaction of Forex market participants, as, for example, yesterday on retail sales data.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement and has worked out the level of 1.1136. Thus, traders are advised to stay in long positions, at least until the closing of the current candle. In the case of a rebound from the first target, the long positions can be reduced. New purchases of the euro currency can be carried out if the bulls manage to overcome the level of 1.1136, with targets of 1.1170 and 1.1208. It is not recommended to sell the pair now.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line.
Kijun-Sen – blue line.
Senkou Span A – a light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators' window.
