Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair moved down on Monday, September 7, as we expected in the morning. The MACD indicator turned down, this moment is marked in the illustration with two circles. However, after a sell signal was generated, the EUR/USD pair managed to go down by as much as 20 points... Actually, we also warned about this in the morning, when we said that volatility might be low today. In practice, this is exactly what happened. From the high to the low of the day, the pair passed only 36 points at the time of this writing. This is an ultra low value. Thus, the technical picture has not changed at all during the day. The pair's quotes may continue to fall towards the target support level of 1.1790, which is the lower border of the small side channel, only 75 points wide. The price has been trading within this channel for the third consecutive day and can not leave its limits. Thus, at this time, novice traders can only attempt to reach the lower border of this channel, we do not expect other signals to form in the next few hours.
Everything that concerns the fundamental background, about news and economic reports, was already mentioned in the morning. Since no event was planned to date, market participants had nothing to react to during the day. Therefore, low volatility was partly low due to lack of data. There were also no important news and messages from the US. The country is preparing for elections, for the debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as for the vaccination of the population against coronavirus, using a vaccine that has not yet passed all clinical trials. We can only take note of the drop in the number of new COVID-19 cases, which is good news for everyone: epidemiologists, doctors, the government, Trump, Jerome Powell and others. However, the victory is insignificant so far, so the US dollar is not getting strong support. In general, the economic situation in the United States remains rather difficult, so it is difficult for the dollar to find support from market participants.
We can expect few macroeconomic data on September 8, Tuesday. Perhaps we can recommend novice traders to only pay attention to the eurozone's GDP report for the second quarter. This indicator was already published a month ago, but it has several estimates. That is, its meaning is reviewed every month. Thus, tomorrow's report may be better than the previous month. The forecasts, however, completely coincide with the value of the previous month. -12.1% q/q and 15% y.y. If there are no improvements, the US dollar will be able to sustain its moderate growth (downward movement of the euro/dollar pair).
Possible scenarios for September 8:
1) We do not recommend novice traders to place buy positions at this time, since the pair has settled below the upward trend line, so now it has changed to a downward trend. There are currently no signals or technical patterns that support the upward trend. It will be possible to start working for an increase if the price settles above the side channel, but this is unlikely to happen before tomorrow morning.
2) Sell positions continue to look more relevant despite the fact that the pair is currently inside the side channel. Nevertheless, in the morning, traders can open sell positions while aiming for 1.1790 on a signal from MACD. Since the movement is very weak, you can even set the Stop Loss level to zero and Take Profit around 1.1790 and not monitor the trade. In the morning, we propose to re-evaluate the technical picture and then choose a new trading strategy for the day.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
