EUR/USD

Yesterday, a strong report on inflation came out in the US and the fall of the euro was comparable to its growth on the release of data on employment - 75 points against Friday's 98th. The core CPI for April grew by 0.9% against the expectation of 0.3%, the general CPI added 0.8% against the expectation of 0.2%, on an annualized basis the CPI jumped from 2.6% y/y to 4.2% y/y - to the highest indicator for the last 13 years. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who commented on the data, said that the surge in inflation is temporary, but "true unemployment" is 8.9% (officially 6.1%), so the economy has a long way to recover. We have heard similar arguments since 2014, when the Fed changed priorities with the pace of data release: first, inflation, then employment, then industrial production, then inflation again. This is a good sign that the Fed does not intend to raise the rate for at least a year, because the country's current debt is 28.1419 trillion. dollars and for a year and a half it is planned to increase by another 2 trillion. The national currency can be strengthened easily and without raising the rate.

The divergence has formed on the daily chart, the 1.1986 target has become tangible. Consolidating below the level opens the way (albeit not an easy one) to 1.1665. There remains a 15% probability of price growth with the formation of a double divergence.

The price settled under the MACD line (1.2097) on the four-hour chart. Consolidating above it will slightly increase the likelihood of a double divergence. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. We expect the euro to fall to the May 5 low.