22.10.202112:37 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Bitcoin futures open interest hits record high

After a brisk start of the week, bitcoin set a new historical record near $67k, before falling back to the local support zone. In other circumstances, such a steep drop and a $450 million loss to investors might have caused a sell-off and exacerbated BTC's fall. However, the market retains a strong desire to continue the bullish rally, which is reflected in several fundamentals. Leading analysts and entrepreneurs are confident of bitcoin's continued growth. Moreover, the ETF's operation could be a real goldmine for the market.

According to JPMorgan, the main factor contributing to the current cryptocurrency rally is institutional investors' fear of inflation. Another wave of coronavirus is contributing to higher inflation and market disruption. Bitcoin has long been known as an an asset to protect against inflationary losses, so, the interest of large companies is reasonable. However, such a sharp growth in BTC investment would not have happened if the first bitcoin futures ETF had not been launched in the US. Leading crypto analyst Tom Lee said it was a fundamental decision by the SEC and it could take the entire cryptocurrency market to the next level. According to the expert, BTC futures could bring up to $50 billion of investment into the crypto market. This would significantly increase the capitalization of bitcoin and other coins and set the stage for a new phase of digital finance.

The analyst predicted bitcoin to rise to $100k in 2021, but the launch of an ETF fund has significantly changed the situation. If the exchange institution on BTC continues to receive investment, the price per coin could reach $168k. Such a scenario is possible since on the first day of trading the exchange-traded fund raised more than $ 1 billion, which is the best start of such financial institutions in history. In addition, the futures market has seen record interest in Bitcoin futures. This indicates its willingness to push the price up. During the previous rally in mid-April, interest in BTC futures was around $27.3 billion.

Despite the prerequisites for investment growth, reaching $160k seems unrealistic even with the fund's positive start. Lee estimates that in order for crypto to approach that price, an additional daily demand for the asset of more than $50 million is needed while maintaining price stability. However, in the case of BTC, this is a difficult circumstance to predict. Despite this, analysts believe that the ETF's launch and rising inflation are positively influencing the price of the first crypto-asset and therefore the rally will continue.

Meanwhile, bitcoin dropped to the support zone at $63.3k. A bearish engulfing candle was formed on the daily chart. Therefore, sellers' pressure continues to rise. At the same time, technical indicators show positive momentum and start an uptrend. However, market activity does not allow the price to break through the bearish pressure. Despite this, the MACD is moving in a flat pattern with downside potential and the stochastic oscillator is preparing for an upward movement and the formation of a bullish crossover. It is followed by the Relative Strength Index, which indicates the gradual end of the stabilization phase. The market needs a powerful buyer to launch a bullish rally and take the coin beyond the $63.3k-$65k pressure area.

Exchange Rates 22.10.2021 analysis

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Artem Petrenko,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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