EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair did not perform either a rise or a fall on Friday, but traded neatly under the 1.1450 level all day, without even trying to fend it off or close above it. Thus, it is impossible to analyze Friday, since there is nothing to analyze. Today, on Monday, the quotes tried to start a new growth process. However, the bull traders gave up their positions and the pair returned to where it had spent all Friday. There were no movements on Friday or Monday. Something may change in the afternoon, but it is not yet clear at what expense. To date, the calendars of economic events do not contain interesting entries. Only Christine Lagarde's speech in Parliament attracts attention. It was riveting since, after her performance, the euro is standing still, not even trying to move. Thus, it is easy to guess that the ECB president has not reported anything that traders do not yet know.
The topic of the ECB's monetary policy is now the most confusing. On the one hand, Christine Lagarde has already stated that she will not raise rates next year, and the PEPP program should end on schedule, but at the same time, the APP asset purchase program will be expanded. It is difficult to say how much it will be expanded. The most common figure in the media is 20 billion euros per month, but some analysts believe that this amount will be more. Thus, making the simplest calculations, we get a figure of 80-100 billion euros per month under the PEPP program. If at the same time the APP program is expanded by 40-60 billion per month, then there will be no effect from the collapse of the main program. Or it will be too small. What is the point of completing one asset purchase program to immediately expand another? In addition, the ECB, unlike the Fed or the Bank of England, does not even think about raising rates. The ECB's monetary policy, accordingly, remains weaker than in the UK or the US. This may put pressure on the euro in the medium term.
EUR/USD – 4H
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1404). The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the US currency. The rebound of quotes from the level of 127.2% (1.1404) will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of 1.1606. Closing at 1.1404 will increase the probability of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.1148).
News calendar for the USA and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (10:00 UTC).
On November 15, the US calendar is empty, and Christine Lagarde's speech has already taken place in the European Union. As you can see, there was no reaction of traders to this event. Thus, there is no information background today, which is noticeable by the movement of the pair itself.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish". Speculators closed 4,032 long contracts on the euro and 10,622 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 195 thousand, and the total number of short contracts - to 199 thousand. Now, these numbers practically coincide, which gives reason to assume that there is no clear mood among speculators. In general, in recent months, there has been a tendency to strengthen the "bearish" mood. Perhaps, now the mood of traders is at a point where no one has an advantage. Perhaps in a week or two, the "bearish" mood will continue to strengthen, which will allow the European currency to continue falling.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pair when closing below the level of 1.1404 on a 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1357 and 1.1250. Purchases – when rebounding from the level of 1.1404 with a target of 1.1552.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not to make speculative profits, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
