29.11.2023 04:25 PM
What to pay attention to on November 29th? Analysis of fundamental events for beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

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Several macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. We cannot categorize them as "important," but there have been no reports in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, or the EU over the past three days. Therefore, today's reports on inflation in Germany and GDP in the United States are important because there are no others. The report on German inflation, by the way, is already available. According to it, the consumer price index slowed down in November to 3.2% instead of the expected 3.5%. It is worth noting that, at the moment, the market has not reacted to these figures. Only the report on the GDP of the United States in the third estimate remains, which is unlikely to differ significantly from the first or second. This means that the market reaction may be extremely weak or even absent.

Analysis of fundamental events:

From the fundamental events of Wednesday, a whole series of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England can be highlighted. What sense do they make if, time after time, we hear the same theses and statements? The central banks are still waiting to raise or lower the key interest rate. Therefore, until the sentiment inside a particular central bank changes, the speeches of its representatives have a formal character.

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General conclusions:

On Wednesday, beginners should only wait for the GDP report in the United States, from which it is already challenging to expect a resonant value. Be careful; volatility during the American trading session may increase, but it will not be related to the GDP report or the speeches of central bank representatives. The last three days have shown that the market is ready to buy both major currency pairs even without fundamental and macroeconomic reasons.

Key rules of the trading system:

  1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time it took to form the signal (rebound or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, it is better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
  4. Trades are opened between the start of the European and mid-American sessions when all trades must be closed manually.
  5. On the 30-minute timeframe, based on signals from the MACD indicator, one can trade only in the presence of good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trendline or trend channel.
  6. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

What's on the charts:

Price levels of support and resistance – levels that are the targets when opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.

Red lines – channels or trendlines that reflect the current trend and show the preferred direction to trade.

MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

For beginners trading in the forex market, it is essential to remember that only some trades can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.

Paolo Greco,
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