Oil prices edged up, driven by data on US crude oil inventories. Following the American Petroleum Institute, the US Energy Department also reported a decrease in reserves.
Data showed that crude oil inventories fell by 500,000 barrels, while experts predicted an increase of 1 million barrels. Now the risk of energy shortages is back on the agenda, especially given Saudi Arabia’s intention to voluntarily cut oil production by 1 million barrels. However, ongoing concerns about a slowdown in China’s economy and a possible recession in the US and Europe do not allow oil quotes to gain strong upside momentum.
That is why oil failed to rise above $77 a barrel. Moreover, the most likely scenario for the immediate future suggests a gradual slide to the level of $76 per barrel. Nevertheless, market changes remain relatively insignificant. In fact, Brent crude has been moving in a wide sideways range for over a month.
To gain upside momentum and get out of the range, the quote needs to consolidate above $78/$79 per barrel. In a bear-case scenario, the quote will head for the level of $74 acting as the lower boundary of the trading range. In general, Brent crude remains flat, with its future direction depending on fundamental factors.
In yesterday’s late trade, gold declined as the US dollar advanced. However, the yellow metal spent early trade standing still despite a decline in the greenback. This allows us to regard the upside potential for gold as exhausted. After all, the asset is under sustained pressure not only from high interest rates but from the likelihood of their further increases.
In a downside scenario, the volume of short positions will increase further in case the price fixes below the 1,930 mark (at least on the four-hour chart). A marked rise is possible only after investors are convinced of imminent interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the US dollar managed to rise to 82 rubles against the ruble ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Russia. Considering that the regulator will most likely leave policy rates unchanged, this feels more like speculation.
Ahead of the release of important statistics or a significant event with a preordained outcome, quotes often move in the opposite direction from the one expected. When an event has already occurred, they end up gaining strong momentum. Apparently, this is exactly what is happening to the ruble right now. Therefore, at least a local rise in the greenback above the 82 mark cannot be excluded.
That's all for now. We continue to follow developments in the financial markets. Subscribe to our channel and stay up to date with us. We look forward to seeing new videos on our channel in a couple of hours. See you soon!

00:00 Introduction
00:16 Oil Market Situation
00:52 Brent
01:46 Gold
02:36 USD/RUB
03:25 Conclusion

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