09.09.2020 12:15 PM
EUR/USD: Bulls are fighting against the US dollar

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Experts believe that the short-term upward dynamics of the EUR/USD pair and the strong rise of the dollar may become a trap for bulls. Thus, they warn against excessive euphoria, particularly about the volatility of the current trend.

Yesterday, the US currency was growing steadily, dragging the EUR/USD pair with it. The rally came amid a number of volatile factors, including the upcoming ECB meeting scheduled for tomorrow, pound's sinking due to Brexit issues, and the widespread decline in global stock markets.

Considering these factors, the dollar continues to cautiously strengthen, although it stumbles and retreats from the conquered highs from time to time. Today, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the range of 1.1779-1.1780. Analysts note that the pair is moving away from the round level of 1.1800 and its correction by 23.6% over the past two months.

Experts believe that the reason for the sharp correction and further weakening of the dollar is its excessive overbought. Currency strategists at CitiBank fear the negative consequences of the transition to a correctional turn for both EUR/USD and the dollar. In addition, they are concerned about the current changes in the dynamics of the pair, fearing a repetition of the events of three years ago, when the pair's correction led to a dizzying up and down movement and off-scale turbulence.

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It can be recalled that in September 2017, the EUR/USD pair reached its peak, closely approaching 1.2100, but the pair could not climb further. In April 2018, the dollar began to rally, followed by a correction in the EUR/USD pair. It lasted about nine weeks and ended with the fall of the European currency to the level of 1.1554.

Citi experts do not exclude that the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair may gain impulse like three years ago, and then the bulls will be in a positive zone. However, they now have to fight and defend their positions.

Moreover, the bank is paying attention to a noticeable weakening of the upward momentum in the EUR/USD pair. But the "bulls" do not give up their attempts to resume the upward trend, even if they continuously fail. The specialists recommend following the dynamics of the pair in the range of 1.1754-1.1760, believing that a breakthrough of this support level will be a signal to take profit on long positions. The bank is sure that this will open the way to the level of 1.1500 in the future.

The current situation complicates the dollar's position. In September, it behaves surprisingly cautiously, gradually strengthening its position. The US dollar has been strengthening during the last six trading sessions in a row, and this is not the limit. Along with this, there was a short-term decline in the US dollar that confuses the markets.

Recently, traders and investors received a signal to use the dollar in the global system, although some were ready to say goodbye to it. The current optimism about the dollar was strengthened by positive macroeconomic data from the US. At the same time, the US Congress continues to discuss new monetary incentives designed to help restore the national economy. The only problem is the new Fed's inflation targeting strategy. According to experts, it is slowly but surely undermining the position of the dollar and putting high pressure on the US national debt.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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