Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair finally showed a movement that is expected of it. Quotes were moving in one direction almost all day and volatility increased by more than one and a half times. So today was a very good day to trade. Despite the fact that the pair was moving much more actively than usual, the technical picture did not change at all on the 30-minute timeframe. The problem is that for the last week, if not more, the price has been practically in the same place - between the levels of 1.1802 and 1.1851. Thus, one day with a stronger trending move is not a signal that a trend has started. It is now impossible to form a trend line or channel on a 30-minute timeframe. In addition, the current macroeconomic background is not the reason for the strengthening of the movement and appreciation of the dollar. The only significant report of the day - retail sales in the US - was released when the downward movement was almost over. And the speech of the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde did not give any new information to traders at all.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Nevertheless, two signals were formed at once on the 5-minute timeframe, not the strongest and clear, but profitable ones. The first one - for short positions - was formed when the level of 1.1802 was overcome. This is where novice traders had to open shorts. Subsequently, the price overcame the level of 1.1775, so short positions should be kept open. As a result, after the formation of the signal, the price went down another 43 points, which was enough for any of the Take Profit that we recommended to work. Thus, beginners could have earned at least 30 points today. We also note that not a single false signal was generated today, which is also very good. The US dollar started to rise, which is not based on either fundamental or macroeconomic factors. Therefore, tomorrow will be of great importance in understanding whether the movement today was not an accident.
How to trade on Friday:
The EUR/USD pair has long left the rising channel on the 30-minute timeframe, but is trying to form a downward trend now. There is still no trend as such at this time. The movements are still very weak (as one day is not an indicator), so we still do not recommend considering the MACD indicator as a source of trading signals. Traders managed to overcome the important level of 1.1802, so the chances for a further fall are increasing. On a 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1775, 1.1802, 1.1851. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Friday, the European Union will publish a report on inflation for August, but this is the second estimate of the indicator, so it is unlikely to differ from the first. Accordingly, the markets are unlikely to find it necessary to work out this report. The situation will be even more boring in America, since from more or less significant reports we can only single out the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. But if there is no serious deviation in the actual value from the predicted value, then the reaction is unlikely to follow.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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