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15.03.2023: US banking crisis spreads to Europe. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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It seems that the banking crisis that has erupted in the United States is starting to affect Europe. German depositors have already begun to withdraw their funds from local banks. If this goes on, the number of bankruptcies will inevitably increase.
All this increases the risk of a deep economic crisis, accompanied by a protracted recession. That is why oil prices remain under pressure. After all, demand may drop significantly. Even given that the US Federal Reserve is already preparing emergency measures to limit fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the European Central Bank is just watching what is happening so far. Thus, oil will gradually lose value until the European regulator gives some comments on the current situation.
According to the trading chart, Brent crude oil futures saw a more dramatic decline after breaking through the support level of $80 per barrel and fixing below $79. This indicates an increase in the volume of short positions. If the price stays firm below last year's low of $75.11, the downtrend will continue. However, in the area of 75, short interest may well dip, which in turn will result in a short-term pullback.
A steep rally in gold prices was replaced by their modest slide. This move can be seen as a technical pullback, which rather serves as a preparation for a new wave up. Gold futures temporarily slowed down the pace of their upward cycle at around the level of 1,915 dollars per troy ounce and then retreated. This pullback may lead to a shift in market sentiment. Thus, if the price consolidates above the 1,915 mark, a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions will drive the yellow metal up to the psychological level of 2,000.
The banking crisis is unfolding, thus eroding confidence in the banking system. This contributes to a rally in gold which is considered a safe-haven asset. Moreover, investors will continue to flee to gold, trying to minimize their losses and survive the turbulent times.
The Russian currency continues to trade in the range of 75 to 76 rubles per dollar. At the same time, the ruble once again tried to fall below the level of 75 rubles per dollar. This largely reflects investors’ expectations regarding the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Russia, whose participants are likely to keep the key rate unchanged. Nevertheless, no one intends to take risks yet, so the ruble will hardly gain value before Friday.

00:00 Introduction
00:19 Oil prices under pressure
00:53 Brent
01:23 Gold
02:02 Banking crisis as a precondition for rising gold prices
02:20 USD/RUB
02:52 Conclusion

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