08.10.202503:29:20UTC+00World Bank Lifts China 2025 Growth, Warns of Slower 2026 Pace

In its latest revision, the World Bank has adjusted its 2025 growth forecast for China, elevating it from 4.0% to 4.8%. However, the institution cautions that growth is anticipated to decelerate in 2026 due to diminished consumer and business confidence, alongside sluggish orders for new exports. According to its semi-annual economic outlook report for East Asia and the Pacific, the World Bank pointed out that the downturn in China's growth, the largest economy in the region, is inevitable. This decline is attributed to an anticipated slowdown in export growth, potential reductions in fiscal stimulus due to escalating public debt, and ongoing structural deceleration. Data from September indicates a near year-long low in China's industrial production and retail sales growth, underscoring the country's struggle to achieve robust economic recovery. Analysts suggest that Beijing might consider implementing further stimulus measures to support its ambition of achieving around 5% annual growth. Additionally, the World Bank projects that the East Asia and Pacific region will grow by 4.4% in 2025, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points, while maintaining a steady growth forecast of 4.5% for 2026.