05.03.202610:47:04UTC+00Coffee Futures Hover Around 7-Month Lows

Arabica coffee futures were trading just above $2.80 per pound, hovering near their lowest level since July 2025, as sentiment remained dominated by expectations of strong supply from Brazil in the coming seasons. Favorable recent weather has supported prospects for the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, with substantial rainfall benefiting key arabica-growing regions. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, has projected a record 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags. Looking further ahead, the market is also considering the possibility of an all‑time high in 2027/28, with output potentially surpassing 80 million bags, assuming the absence of damaging frosts next winter and no renewed drought between September 2026 and February 2027.

Additional downward pressure on prices has come from the certified stock side, as ICE arabica inventories rose for a third consecutive session to 528,028 bags as of March 4. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring the conflict involving Iran, given that higher oil prices are driving up global logistics costs and straining maritime freight rates for Brazil’s coffee exports.