09.04.202604:14:54UTC+00Rupiah Remains Fragile as External and Fiscal Risks Mount

The Indonesian rupiah traded around IDR 17,070 per dollar on Thursday, remaining above the key 17,000 threshold for a fourth consecutive session after recently touching a record low near 17,100. The currency stayed under pressure from a firm US dollar index, as fragile ceasefire conditions between the United States and Iran kept global risk sentiment cautious.

At the same time, worries over Indonesia’s resilience to external shocks persisted. Foreign exchange reserves in March fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, while February’s trade surplus narrowed, pointing to weaker external buffers. Indonesia’s exposure to volatile global oil prices also continues to threaten fiscal stability.

The government has stated it still has room to manage higher energy costs, but President Prabowo’s incoming administration is reportedly recalibrating policy in response to rising inflation and mounting supply concerns. Meanwhile, the central bank has maintained its focus on smoothing excessive currency volatility rather than defending a specific exchange rate level, using the full range of available policy tools.