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30.09.202606:50:54UTC+00US PCE Inflation Set to Edge Up, Annual Rate Expected to Hold Steady

The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, the largest increase in three months, after a 0.2% gain in July. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to advance 0.3%, also the strongest monthly rise in three months following a 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, headline PCE inflation is forecast to hold at 3.7% for a third straight month, while the core rate is likewise seen unchanged at 3.3%, matching the readings of the previous two months. The personal consumption expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge and has remained above its 2% target since 2021.

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