Over the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed high volatility with 95 points, and as a result, the quote traced a rebound in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the previously formed platform in the area of 1.2430 served as a point of reference for a periodic value of 1.2500. You may be wondering, what was it about? Most likely, spontaneous jumps against the background of the general ambiguity in Britain, and there is no necessary meaning here. As discussed in the previous review, most traders went into a position to sell just the value of 1.2500, but the time interval is July 19-22, with the hope of a deeper move than the value of 1.2430. Now the positions are still held, but some of the traders are still fixed at the time of a sharp return, but they are already looking at the current points.

The news background of the previous day contained statistics on sales of new housing in the United States, where growth was expected from 626K to 660K, but as a result, they revised the previous data for the worse: Previous. 604K ---> Act. 646K. The information background had in itself the official part of the appointment of Boris Johnson to the post of British Prime Minister, where by results he had already formed a government of the majority of Brexit supporters. In the new list of ministers, the supporters of the country's withdrawal from the European Union took their posts. However, the 17 former senior ministers of Theresa May government were dismissed or left the post themselves. Perhaps, this news was an incentive to strengthen the British currency, oh, I doubt it, because if you refer to all the rhetoric of Boris Johnson regarding further actions, then what kind of general are we exactly talking about?

Today, the ECB is in the center of attention, with a subsequent press conference where we will talk about the future of monetary policy. Previously, the media focused on the actively debated topic of a possible reduction in the interest rate, inflating a strong fear on market participants, and this is actively reflected in the euro / dollar pair. Today is the "X" day, and the news, though not in English currency, but due to the high correlation can affect the volatility and, as a fact, the movement of the GPBUSD pair. According to statistics, we only have data on the United States regarding durable goods, where they expect a growth of 0.7%, but, most likely, the news will be in the background at the expense of the ECB press conference.

EU 14:45 MSK - interest rate decision

15:30 MSK - ECB Press Conference

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the periodic level of 1.2500 played the resistance level, where the quotation went to the recovery stage, although showing some ambiguous interest. Traders, in turn, are cautiously considering positions to sell, unless, of course, they are holding them from old stocks. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the surface of the current values with a limit of 1.2500. Next, we analyze the incoming information background and fixation points, for the primary calculation, the boundaries of 1.2460 / 1.2500 are taken.

Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:

- We consider buy positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.2500. With the prospect of a move to 1.2550-1.2570.

- Positions for sale, if we do not have, then the primary point is considered around 1.2460, but it can be revised in case of a strong background.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term are set to decrease due to the attempt to restore the downward course. Intraday perspective changed interest from descending to ascending due to yesterday's jump. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest against the general background of the market.

Concentrated in a downward plan, which is justified by the current market background.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(July 25 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 27 points. In the case of a strong information background for the EU, there may be a mirror image on GBPUSD and the volatility will increase. Otherwise, there is a fluctuation within the daily average.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.

Support areas: 1.2430; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.