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11.05.2012 03:31 PM
AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for May 11, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward movement. During the Asian session the AUD/USD pair started an ascending movement toward the 1.0120 level. Therefore during the early New York session we could observe price higher at 1.0141 level (100EMA resistance).The AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and we could observe price lower at the end of the New York session. Today during the Asian session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and presently the price is trading around 1.0020 level. We can consider this move as end of the A wave (coloured blue). Presently we can observe the start of the B wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave (B) retraces 61.8% of the wave (A), we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0473-1.0017); the First Take Profit at 1.0245 (50% of wave A) and Second Take Profit at 1.02999 (61.8% of wave A). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance point at 1.0000. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the US US PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment that can affect the rate of the pair.

Alternation: We are currently in a wave 5 of the bigger A wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring the wave 1;Take Profit at 0.9973 (100% of wave A). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance point at 1.0020.

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Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9976 (S2) 1.0018 (S1) 1.0044 (PP) 1.0086 (R1) 1.0128 (R2) 1.0154 (R3) 1.0196

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0050 with Stop Loss at 1.0000, Take Profit 1 at 1.0245 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0299 are recommended.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
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