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23.07.2012 11:30 AM
EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 23 - 2012

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                                                                                                      EUR/NZD - Daily

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                                                                                                   EUR/NZD - 4 Hour

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

 

Support                         Resistance

1: 1.5177                      1: 1.5293

2: 1.5131                      2: 1.5371

3: 1.5100                      3: 1.5450

 

 

Technical Overview:
Looking at the long term picture (see the upper daily chart), we can see that we are now at the end of the diagonal support line near 1.5140. We have been trying to find a bottom here and it now seems that it is in place with the test of 1.5131 or is very close to it. As long as minor resistance at 1.5293 and more importantly 1.5450 has been broken to the upside, we should allow for more pressure towards the downside that said there is not much more room towards the downside.
Zooming in on the last decline from the 1.6969 high (see the 4 hourly chart), we can see that we are hitting the end of the diagonal support line near 1.5140, but we also retested the falling channel, which has contained most of the decline since the 1.6923 all pointing towards a bottom forming in this area. This situation proves that we must allow for slightly more downside pressure as long as minor resistance at 1.5293 is not broken towards the upside. A break above 1.5293 will ease the downside pressure and a break above 1.5450 will signal that an important bottom is in place.

Trading Recommendation:
We are long from 1.5250 with a 1.5095 stop. We will move stop up to 1.5125 upon a break above 1.5293. If you are not long EUR already, then wait for a break above 1.5293 before buying with a stop at 1.5125.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Torben Melsted
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