As we predicted yesterday, the spot rate bounced off on the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 98.30 and approaches now the upper limit of its channel at 99.00 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate violent bullish channel.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Furthermore, the superior band strengthens the upper limit of the channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

As the spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell on the level of 99.00 with the 1st objective at 98.40 and then at 98.20. A breakthrough of 99.20 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 99.00 with the 1st objective at 99.60 and then at 99.80. A breakthrough of 98.80 will invalidate this scenario.