Yesterday along with the stock market the euro grew. The Eurozone Retail PMI in April which was 44.2 vs. 43.7 and the Italian 10- year bond yields auction influenced positively the euro. The Italian 10-year yield fell to 4.21%, the lowest level since July 2012, from 4.28%. The program calling for tax cuts for business, consumers, and homeowners won a confidence vote in the Italian Parliament yesterday. Data on US Personal Income and Personal Spending in March was published yesterday. Personal Income grew 0.2% vs. forecast for 0.4% and Personal Spending rose 0.2% vs. forecast for 0.1%. US Pending Home Sales was up 1.5% vs. expectations for 1.0%.

Today at 10:00 GMT+4 data on German Retail Sales in March is issued. It is estimated to be -0.2% vs. -0.3% in February. At 11:00 GMT+4 Spain’s GDP in Q1 is revealed, it is expected to be -0.5% vs. -0.8% in Q4. At 13:00 GMT+4 data on German Unemployment Rate in March is published, forecast 12.1% vs. 12.0%.

At 17:45 GMT+4 Chicago Fed national Activity Index in April is issued, it is expected to be 52.5 vs. 52.4 in March. US Consumer Confidence index (at 18:00 GMT+4) is expected at 60.6 against 59.7.

If the data is mixed the situation looks preferable for the US Dollar. It is probable the euro will take an indirect correlation to US stock market, especially taking into account the expectations of the ECB slashes key rate.

Technically, the situation is bullish. It is possible that data on Germany and the US will be better than forecasts. The development of positive scenario is possible if the trendline is broken on the H4 (1.3111), the first target is 1.3160, trendline on the daily chart, the second target is 1.3193, the resistance on the H4. Bearish scenario is possible when the testing level 1.3074 is broken, in this case targets 1.3045 and 1.3014 open.