empty
 
 

विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 24. Results of the week. The euro currency went underwater because of geopolitics.
time 24.09.2022 03:28 PM
time Relevance up to, 25.09.2022 08:12 AM

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair fell by another 320 points during the current week. At first glance, it may seem that such a strong downward movement of the pair was quite justified since this week, the Fed held a meeting at which it was decided to raise the rate by 0.75% again. However, from our point of view, the Fed meeting, its results, and even Jerome Powell's speech slightly affected the mood of traders. The key factors in the new fall of the European currency were technical and geopolitical. From the view of "technology," as we have repeatedly said in our previous articles, a global downward trend has been maintained and continues, which has been going on for more than a year and a half. Even based on this factor alone, the fall was much more expected than the growth. The euro still cannot adjust normally; the maximum correction for the entire one-and-a-half-year trend was 400 points. What are 400 points when the whole trend is already 2500 points? 15%? These two points perfectly show that there are no buyers on the market.

Furthermore, there has not been a single signal to buy recently on the senior TF, so it is necessary first of all to study the whole trend. The price overcame the critical line, which to a greater extent decreased and went below the price than the price rose and went above the Kijun-sen. That is, from the point of view of "technology," there was not a single reason to buy the euro currency.

The COT reports have recently signaled a weakening of the "bearish" mood, and the number of longs and shorts among major players has almost equalized. Now, look at the chart of the pair's movement. Did it somehow help the euro currency? The answer is obvious. The demand for the US dollar is also very important. If the demand for the dollar is growing faster than the demand for the euro, then we still have a fall in the European currency. And now, the demand for the dollar is growing by leaps and bounds because the geopolitical situation in the world is heating up again.

In principle, this week, everyone has already written about the mobilization in Russia. There is nothing new here. If the Kremlin has decided to mobilize, the military conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future. In February 2022, about 150–200 thousand Russian soldiers entered Ukraine. According to official information, about 300,000 are being mobilized. According to unofficial information, the figure may exceed 1 million. Why do you think so many men are being mobilized? Not to conduct exercises or to guard the border. Naturally, there was an increased anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market immediately. Moreover, traders rushed to buy the dollar with renewed vigor, as their country is very far from the fighting and practically does not depend on Ukraine, Russia, or sanctions. Here are all the reasons for the fall of the euro currency, which can now continue for a very long time.

The Fed's monetary policy is only one of the factors contributing to the fall of the euro.

As for the Fed meeting, it was just another nail in the coffin of the euro currency. The American regulator decided to raise the rate by 0.75% for the third time in a row, and we all see that James Bullard was right when he said that the rate should be raised higher than 4% a few months ago. Now everything is coming to this. If at the beginning of the year the rate increase by a point looked like an emergency measure, now the Fed can raise the rate by this value four times in a row because Jerome Powell declared his readiness to tighten monetary policy at a high pace further. By the end of the year, the rate may increase by another 1.25%, and it is unlikely to decline over the next year. All this gives additional reasons for the dollar to continue to show growth as the ECB continues to catch up. The difference between the ECB and Fed rates is no longer increasing, but it remains significant in itself, which favors the US currency.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of September 24 is 113 points and is characterized as "high." Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 0.9576 and 0.9802 on Monday. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 0.9644

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 0.9705

R2 – 0.9766

R3 – 0.9827

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downtrend and collapsed on Friday. Thus, it would be best if you stayed in short positions with targets of 0.9644 and 0.9576 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Purchases will become relevant no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with goals of 0.9949 and 1.0010.

Explanations of the illustrations:

Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.

Based on current volatility indicators, volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day.

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Paolo Greco,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
© 2007-2023
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
समय सीमा चुनें
5
मिनट
15
मिनट
30
मिनट
1
घंटा
4
घंटे
1
दिन
1
सप्ताह
ट्रेड शुरू करें
ट्रेड शुरू करें

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें
  • चैन्सी डिपॉजिट
    $ 3,000 के साथ अपना खाता जमा करें और प्राप्त करें $1000 अधिक!
    में फ़रवरी हम आकर्षित करते हैं $1000 चैंसी डिपॉज़िट में
    ट्रेडिंग अकाउंट में $ 3,000 जमा करके जीतने का अवसर प्राप्त करें इस शर्त को पूरा करके आप प्रतियोगिता में भाग ले सकते हैं
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें
  • ट्रेड वाइज़, विन डिवाइस
    कम से कम $500 के साथ अपने खाते में टॉप अप करें, कॉन्टेस्ट के लिए साइन अप करें और मोबाइल डिवाइस जीतने का मौका पाएं।
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें
  • 100% बोनस
    अपनी जमा राशि पर 100% बोनस प्राप्त करने का आपका अनूठा अवसर
    बोनस पायें
  • 55% बोनस
    अपनी प्रत्येक डिपॉजिट पर 55% बोनस के लिए आवेदन करें
    बोनस पायें
  • 30% बोनस
    हर बार खाता टॉप अप करने पर 30% बोनस प्राप्त करें
    बोनस पायें

Recommended Stories

तुर्की में भूकंप के बाद सऊदी अरामको ने तेल की कीमतों में बढ़ोतरी की है

चीन में मांग में निरंतर सुधार के बारे में बढ़ती आशावाद के बीच सऊदी अरामको द्वारा एशिया में अपनी डिलीवरी की कीमत बढ़ाने के बाद WTI $ 75 प्रति बैरल

Andrey Shevchenko 18:00 2023-02-07 UTC+2

अमेरिकी मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़ों से पहले सप्ताह में बाजार में तेजी आएगी

वैश्विक बाजारों में गिरावट जारी है, यह इस बढ़ती चिंता को दर्शाता है कि मजबूत श्रम बाजार के आंकड़ों के कारण फेड मुद्रास्फीति के कम होने पर अपनी आशावाद खो

Pati Gani 17:57 2023-02-07 UTC+2

एयूडी/यूएसडी। रिजर्व बैंक ऑफ ऑस्ट्रेलिया ने ब्याज दर में 25 अंकों की बढ़ोतरी की

बैठक में कही गई बातों के परिणामस्वरूप, ऑस्ट्रेलिया के रिज़र्व बैंक ने ब्याज दर को 25 आधार अंकों या 3.35 प्रतिशत तक बढ़ा दिया। यह विकल्प अपेक्षित था, विशेष रूप

Irina Manzenko 17:51 2023-02-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD। 7 फरवरी, 2023 का अवलोकन

जैसा कि कल भविष्यवाणी की गई थी, कम अस्थिरता के बावजूद EUR/USD मुद्रा जोड़ी ने सोमवार को गिरावट जारी रखी। यह देखते हुए कि न तो अमेरिका और न ही

Paolo Greco 09:11 2023-02-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD। 7 फरवरी, 2023 का अवलोकन

एक संकेत के बिना कि एक सुधार शुरू होने वाला था, GBP/USD करेंसी पेअर ने सोमवार को अपनी गिरावट का रुख फिर से शुरू कर दिया, जो पिछले सप्ताह के

Paolo Greco 09:11 2023-02-07 UTC+2

AUD/USD: RBA मीटिंग से पहले

डॉलर इंडेक्स (डीएक्सवाई) गुरुवार को 10 महीने के निचले स्तर 100.68 से वापस आने के बाद शुक्रवार को तेजी से बढ़ा। शुक्रवार को सामने आए अमेरिकी श्रम आंकड़ों ने डॉलर

Jurij Tolin 18:37 2023-02-06 UTC+2

AUD/USD: ऑस्ट्रेलियाई डॉलर RBA के फैसले का इंतजार कर रहा है

रिज़र्व बैंक ऑफ़ ऑस्ट्रेलिया एशिया में मंगलवार के कारोबारी सत्र के दौरान वर्ष की अपनी पहली बैठक के परिणामों के बारे में बात करेगा। भले ही कल की बैठक का

Irina Manzenko 18:34 2023-02-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD। 6 फरवरी, 2023 का अवलोकन

शुक्रवार को, EUR/USD करेंसी पेअर ने अंतत: एक गति प्रदर्शित की जिसे उचित माना जा सकता है और इसके लिए डिकोडिंग की आवश्यकता नहीं है। कई महत्वपूर्ण रिपोर्टें जो संयुक्त

Paolo Greco 17:05 2023-02-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD। 3 फरवरी, 2023 के लिए अवलोकन

EUR/USD करेंसी पेअर गुरुवार को कई दिशाओं में चल रही थी, लेकिन पिछली शाम इसने उस साइड चैनल को छोड़ दिया जिसमें यह पिछले तीन हफ्तों से था और फिर

Paolo Greco 14:48 2023-02-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD। 3 फरवरी 2023 का अवलोकन

GBP/USD करेंसी पेअर में भी वृद्धि हुई, हालांकि EUR/USD पेअर की तुलना में बहुत कम महत्वपूर्ण है। इसके अतिरिक्त, इस स्थिति के कारण ट्रेडर्स को विराम देना चाहिए था। यूरो

Paolo Greco 14:48 2023-02-03 UTC+2
अभी बात नहीं कर सकते?
अपना प्रश्न पूछें बातचीत.