02.01.202610:06:09UTC+00German Bund Yields Stabilize as Market Eyes Record Debt Supply

As we enter 2026, Germany's 10-year Bund yield remains stable at 2.87%, following a significant rise of approximately 50 basis points in 2025—the most substantial annual increase since the global inflationary pressures of 2022. Investors are poised for another challenging year marked by significant debt issuance, the ripple effects of German fiscal stimulus, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Private investors are anticipated to absorb an unprecedented €234 billion in net supply this year, after accounting for the European Central Bank's activities. Additionally, Germany is planning to introduce a new 20-year bond. This move is partially motivated by Dutch pension reforms, which have led to increased demand. The Netherlands' pension system, the largest occupational pension structure in the EU valued at nearly €2 trillion, is transitioning to a model without guaranteed benefits, allowing for investments in more volatile assets. According to a Deutsche Bank survey, investors predict that 10-year Bund yields will stabilize around 2.9% by the close of 2026. Furthermore, expectations regarding ECB policy suggest that interest rates will remain consistently elevated throughout the year.