4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 47 p-105 p-95 p-53 p-116 p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 83 p (74 p).

Despite the fact that the second trading day of the week may end with a slight strengthening for the European currency, the downward trend is visible to the naked eye and remains. We have repeatedly said that the absence of positive fundamental factors still cannot cause the euro to fall every day. In any case, there should be technical corrections. Most likely, we have seen one of such corrections today. It is hard to say how long it will last. Especially given the difficulty in resolving the budget problem of Italy and still not moving from a dead point on negotiations over Brexit. Today, before the end of the day, the Italian government should provide a new budget plan for 2019, taking into account the requirements of the European Commission. However, according to the majority of experts, no special revisions will be made to the budget. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio made fairly upbeat statements that he is confident in maintaining Italy's membership in the European Union and does not believe in any penalties from the EU. Thus, now we will have to wait for action from the European Union, which is unlikely to be satisfied with Italy's unwillingness to comply with EU rules. In addition to the problem with Brexit, now the EU has a new problem with Italy. In the medium term this will again put pressure on the euro. From a technical point of view, the correction has started, and to open new short positions you need to wait for its completion.

Trading recommendations:

The correction has started for EUR/USD pair. Thus, the new shorts with the aim 1,1199 it is recommended to open or bounce rates from the line Kijun-sen, or after reversal of the MACD indicator down.

It is recommended to open long positions after fixing the price above the critical Kijun-sen line. Only after that it will be possible to speak again about the change of the trend on the instrument to an upward one.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.