Bitcoin thus far has managed to make a strong rise from $29,000 to $68,900. We consider that this upward move has been completed and it is over. Price is now most probably in a corrective phase and we expect the downward pull back to unfold over the coming weeks.

The scenario where the bullish trend continues and price continues making higher highs and higher lows has in my view the lowest chances of success. The most probable outcome is for price to continue its pull back. So far price has retraced 38% of the entire upward movement. In previous posts we mentioned that a bounce towards $59,000 or even $63,000 is justified. However this does not cancel our primary scenario that Bitcoin is expected to move towards the 50% or even the 61.8% retracement levels before resuming its up trend.