18.11.2022 07:19 AM
Outlook and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 18. COT report. Analysis of market situation. The British pound outlived Jeremy Hunt's plan very quickly.

Analysis of GBP/USD, 5-minute chart

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair showed two good movements on Thursday. The pair began a rather sharp fall in the middle of the European trading session, which, from our point of view, was provoked by the presentation of the budget plan for the next financial year by the UK Secretary of the Treasury Jeremy Hunt (which we wrote about in more detail in the fundamental review of the pound), but in the late afternoon there was already an upward movement and at the moment the pair has returned to its original positions. Therefore, formally, it corrected this week, as we expected, but the correction turned out to be very weak, we expected and still expect a stronger fall in quotes. There were no important reports and events of a macroeconomic nature in the UK yesterday. Reports on the construction market were published in the US, as well as on applications for benefits by the American population. Both reports rarely cause at least some market reaction. Therefore, we do not associate yesterday's movements with macroeconomics. The ascending trend line remains relevant, so from a technical point of view, further growth can be expected. And no fundamental and macroeconomic reports.

Trading signals on the 5-minute chart were not the best on Thursday, but still not as bad as the euro. First, the price bounced off the level of 1.1874 and went up 55 points. Therefore, there could not be a loss on a long position (Stop Loss at breakeven). Then the price formed a sell signal below the Kijun-sen line, after which it managed to reach the target level of 1.1760. Traders managed to get about 35 pips of profit on this trade. There were two rebounds from the level of 1.1760. After the first one, the price went up 40 points, but did not reach the critical line - Stop Loss at breakeven. The second rebound was formed too late, it should not have been worked out. As a result, the day ended with a small profit.

COT report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed a slight weakening of the bearish sentiment. In the given period, the non-commercial group closed 8,500 long positions and 11,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,000, which is very small for the pound. The net position indicator has been slowly rising in recent weeks, but this is not the first time it has risen, but the mood of the big players remains "pronounced bearish" and the pound remains on a downward trend in the medium term. And, if we recall the situation with the euro, then there are big doubts that based on the COT reports, we can expect a strong growth from the pair. How can you count on it if the market buys the dollar more than the pound?

The non-commercial group has now opened a total of 79,000 shorts and 34,000 longs. The difference, as we can see, is still very big. The euro cannot rise even though major players are bullish, and the pound will suddenly be able to grow in a bearish mood? As for the total number of open longs and shorts, here the bulls have an advantage of 21,000. But, as we can see, this indicator also does not help the pound too much. We remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the British currency, although there are certain technical reasons for this.

Analysis of GBP/USD, 1-hour chart

This image is no longer relevant

The pound/dollar pair began a long-awaited, but so far very weak, correction on the one-hour chart. We consider the pound's growth in recent weeks somewhat unfounded, and this week the pound began to correct only on Thursday. However, we expect it to continue falling.

On Friday, the pair may trade at the following levels: 1.1486, 1.1645, 1.1760, 1.1874, 1.1974-1.2007, 1.2106, 1.2185, 1.2259. The Senkou Span B (1.1500) and Kijun-sen (1.1867) lines can also give signals if the price rebounds or breaks these levels. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Also, there are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits.

The UK will publish a report on retail sales, which is far from the most important, and the calendar is empty in the US. Thus, we do not expect a strong market reaction today. Most likely, it will again trade on technique.

What we see on the trading charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They do not provide trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the one-hour chart from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts reflects the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts reflects the net position size for the non-commercial group.

Paolo Greco,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2023
Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Tiền gửi lần truy cập
    Ký quỹ tài khoản của bạn với $3000 và nhận được $8000 nhiều hơn!
    Trong Tháng 3 chúng tôi xổ $8000 trong chiến dịch Chancy Deposit!
    Có được một cơ hội giành chiến thắng bằng việc ký quỹ $3000 vào một tài khoản giao dịch. Đáp ứng được điều kiện này, bạn trở thành một người tham gia chiến dịch.
  • Giao dịch khôn ngoan, thành công
    Nạp tiền vào tài khoản của bạn với ít nhất $ 500, đăng ký cuộc thi và có cơ hội giành được các thiết bị di động.
  • 100% tiền thưởng
    Cơ hội duy nhất của bạn để nhận 100% tiền thưởng khi gửi tiền
  • 55% Tiền thưởng
    Đăng ký tiền thưởng 55% cho mỗi lần gửi tiền của bạn
  • 30% tiền thưởng
    Nhận 30% tiền thưởng mỗi khi bạn nạp tiền vào tài khoản của mình

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD: uptrend seems over

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.3707 and it moves somehow sideways. The price action signaled that the upside movement (uptrend) ended. As you can see on the H1 chart

Ralph Shedler 14:01 2023-03-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD outlook for March 22, 2023

In a situation of remaining high inflation, political and economic uncertainties, and amid expectations of soft decisions from the Fed, purchases of defensive assets—yen, government bonds, and gold—are again very

Jurij Tolin 13:48 2023-03-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD: trading plan for Nort American session on March 22, 2023. Overview of morning trading. GBP/USD goes up amid higher inflation

In the morning, I considered entering the market at 1.2232. Let's see what has happened in the M5 chart. The price broke through the level but no retest followed, meaning

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:46 2023-03-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: trading plan for American session on March 22. Overview of morning trades. EUR reaches new high

In my morning article, I turned your attention to 1.0758 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. Now, let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:44 2023-03-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on March 22, 2023

A report from the National Association of Realtors says existing home sales in the United States increased 14.5% in February from the previous month to 4.58 million homes year-on-year. This

Gven Podolsky 10:05 2023-03-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD: trading plan for European session on March 22. Commitment of Traders. GBP settles at monthly highs

Yesterday, there were several excellent entry points. Now, let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what actually happened. In my morning article, I turned your attention to 1.2227

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:50 2023-03-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading plan for European session on March 22. COT report. EUR continues climbing amid high inflation

Yesterday, traders received several signals to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to clear up the market situation. Earlier, I asked

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:48 2023-03-22 UTC+2

Trading plan for USD index on March 22, 2023

The US dollar index dropped through the 102.60 mark intraday on Tuesday before finding mild bids again. Potential still remains for a dip through the 102.50 mark before resuming

Oscar Ton 07:22 2023-03-22 UTC+2

Trading plan for EURUSD on March 22, 2023

EURUSD rallied through 1.0780 intraday on Tuesday before finding mild resistance. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 1.0775 at this point in writing

Oscar Ton 07:08 2023-03-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Forecast and trading signals on March 22. COT report. Detailed analysis of price movement and trades. The pound plummeted before the central bank meetings.

On Tuesday, GBP/USD surprisingly showed a completely different direction of movement than the EUR/USD pair. And as usual there were no reasons for that, because there were no important fundamental

Paolo Greco 03:41 2023-03-22 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.