The GBP/USD pair produced a new reversal in favor of the British and anchored above the level of 1.2342, according to the hourly chart. Thus, the bears do not benefit as anticipated from consolidating under the ascending trend line. I should point out that the euro/dollar pair exhibits a similar tendency. Bear traders occasionally have the chance to start a trend, but they choose not to take advantage of it. The US dollar will benefit from the comeback in prices from the level of 1.2432 and the continuation of the decline in the direction of the level of 1.2238.
The fourth-quarter GDP for the United States is the most important report of the day right now. Reports on orders for durable goods and applications for unemployment benefits, in my opinion, won't pique traders' interests very much. Another issue is GDP because the Fed's monetary policy hinges on this metric. Of course, the inflation indicator is the most significant, but the ongoing discussions and arguments about the recession over the past several months urge us to pay particular attention to the rate of economic growth, or lack thereof. A disappointing set of GDP data might lead to another decline in the US dollar because it would make the likelihood of a rate hike of more than 0.25% in February much less likely. Nevertheless, in my view, this problem has already been settled outside the Federal Reserve System. It is unlikely that traders will pay the GDP data the attention it deserves if it does not become surprising today (either positively or negatively). This report, though, must still be taken seriously. It has been incredibly difficult for the dollar to demonstrate growth without the assistance of the information background in recent weeks, as it has been struggling to hang on by a thread. I anticipate a high GDP report today since graphical analysis indicates the expansion of the dollar. A 3.2% increase in the previous quarter's growth rate indicates that there won't be a recession in the fourth quarter.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has managed to hold above the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2250), allowing us to predict additional growth to the next level of 1.2441. Quotes rising from this level will benefit the US dollar, while others will fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2250). The likelihood that the pair will continue to rise toward the subsequent corrective mark of 161.8% will rise if the rate of the pair closes above 1.2441. There are no new brewing divergences today.
Report on Commitments of Traders (COT):
The "non-commercial" group of traders has been trading in a less "bearish" manner than they were a week ago. Speculators now hold 5,462 more long contracts than short contracts, a difference of 703 units. The big players' overall outlook is still "bearish," and there are still more short-term contracts than long-term contracts. The situation has shifted in favor of the British over the last few months, but today the number of long and short positions in the hands of speculators has nearly doubled once more. As a result, the outlook for the pound has once again declined, although the British pound is increasing slowly and may be following the euro. Beyond the three-month climbing corridor on the 4-hour chart, there was an exit, and this development may stop the pound's progress.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US – basic orders for durable goods (13:30 UTC).
US – GDP for the fourth quarter (13:30 UTC).
US – number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (13:30 UTC).
Only American activities are listed in the calendar of economic events for Thursday. The information background may have a weak to moderate impact on traders' attitudes for the remainder of the day.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading advice:
If prices rise from the hourly chart level of 1.2432, with targets of 1.2342 and 1.2238, sales of the British pound are possible. When the pair closes above the level of 1.2432, new purchases of the pair with a target price of 1.2590 are conceivable.
