After a three-day weekend, traders will return to the markets where there is little scheduled on the economic calendar. Today traders eye on US existing home sales data. Economists estimate sales slipped 1.1% in March to an annualized rate of 4.55 million. “This follows a fairly steady drop since July of last year,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said. “Existing home sales track closed contracts, so March sales are reflective of market conditions in January and February, when we were coping with the cold and snowy weather. Inventory is likely to increase since the data are released on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and supply, typically picks up in advance of the spring selling season. This will therefore push months supply modestly higher.”

Technical view- weekly level $1,291.50 is resistance, support is at $1,277

The metal has been in a downtrend from $1,330 levels. It is trading below all the short term moving averages. Until the metal crosses and closes above the $1,301 levels, sell on rise is the best strategy. In the daily chart, the RSI doesn't favor longs. The 200SMA is acting as a crucial level for this month at $1,301. Bears will have an upper hand until the metal closes above the $1,301 level. On the upside, the metal is facing strong resistance at $1,301 and $1,304 levels. If it closes above these levels, it will fly up to $1,319 and $1,325 levels. On the downside $1,277 is the support level, if it breaks $1,265, $1,260 and $1,240, it is an open target. If this week it closes below $1,291.50, the bulls submit themselves to the bears for a deep correction. Until gold trades are below the $1,330.40, bears will have the upper hand, and until it closes below $1,306, it will have more bear strength. If this week it closes below $1,291.40, short-term negative wave will start to drift the metal up to $1,220-$1,217 levels.We are completely bearish only below $1,251-$1,249. In the weekly chart, we can observe inverted h&s pattern.

Intraday

The metal is trading at $1,286.8 in Asia's trading session. It is trading between $1,290.20-$1,285.50 levels. On the down side, the metal has support at $1,285.5, $1,282.7 and $1,280 levels. On the upside, once the pair trades above the $1,290.20, it will fly up to $1,293.5, $1,298.5 and $1,300 levels. The panic button will trigger once the metal breaks below the $1,277 level. We expect the metal will give a pull back towards the $1,,293.5 and $1,300 levels before a big fall. The level $1,280 will provide sufficient support for this week.

Safe traders-

buy above $1,290.50; target is at $1,293.5 and $1,300

Sell below $1,277; target is at $1,265 AND $1,255

Risky traders-

Sell below $1,249; target is at $1,220

If any fall takes place, we expect the reversal will take place between $1,265-$1,250 levels with sl $1,249