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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on June 21. Both pairs are preparing for a new fall
time 21.06.2019 09:45 AM
time Relevance up to, 22.06.2019 08:49 AM

EUR / USD pair (4H)

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The EUR/USD pair completed growth to a correctional level of 61.8% at 1.1318 and bounced off from it. As a result, on June 21, the pair reversed in favor of the American dollar and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of correction 50.0% at 1.1277. A bearish divergence was also formed in the CCI indicator, which significantly helped traders to make a decision on the start of sales of the euro-dollar pair. There was little news from Europe yesterday. Traders remained impressed by the information from the Fed meeting and continued to trade in accordance with it. Now the most important question is: is there enough momentum in the last two days to still manage to transfer the pair to an uptrend, or is the hegemony of the US dollar on the foreign exchange market just paused and resumed soon? One can speak with certainty below 1.1348 to talk about further strengthening the euro is meaningless. Today, there will be reports on business activity for June in America and the European Union. Recently, all these data have been inexorably decreasing. The business activity in the manufacturing sector of Europe has even gone into the "negative" area. It is possible that we will see another deterioration in these indicators today and this applies to European indices and the US.

The Fib net formed on extremums from March 20, 2019 and May 23, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD pair and recommendations for traders:

The EUR/USD pair fulfilled a rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling today the euro with targets at 1.1277 and 1.1237, with a protective order above the Fibo level of 61.8%. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the end of quotes from the level of 50.0% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1318 and a Stop Loss order at 1.1277.

GBP / USD pair (4H)

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The GBP/USD pair consolidated above the correction level of 76.4% at 1.2661 on June 20, but now, two bearish divergences are active at the CCI and MACD indicators, which allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect the pair to fall. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 76.4% will significantly increase the chances of resuming a fall in the direction of the correction level 100.0% at 1.2437. The Bank of England held a monetary policy meeting yesterday and, one might say, they disappointed traders with the paucity of information provided. The rate remained unchanged and the volume of the buy-out of assets from the free market was unchanged. Not a single member of the monetary committee voted to change the monetary policy, no hints were given to change it in the near future. This event again shifted the market focus to Brexit but there is nothing special to note here. Yes, Boris Johnson won the 5th round of elections yesterday, the second winner was Jeremy Hunt. Now there is only one, the longest tour, we will know the name of the new prime minister in a month. But so far this information has nothing to do with Brexit, which, like many traders, just stocked up on popcorn while waiting for a denouement. Before the moment of the official change of the leader of Great Britain, it's not worth waiting for any progress in Brexit.

The GBP/USD pair consolidated on June 20 above the correction level of 76.4% at 1.2661. But now, two bearish divergences are active at the CCI and MACD indicators, which allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect the pair to fall.

The Fib net formed on extremums from January 3, 2019 and March 13, 2019.

GBP / USD (1H)

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On the hourly chart, the pound-dollar pair re-consolidated below the correction level of 76.4% at 1.2701. Thus, we can expect today a continuation of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8% at 1.2663. aturing divergences in the current chart are not observed in any indicator. Any bullish divergence can be automatically weak. It is recommended to pay more attention to the behavior of the pair near the correction level of 76.4% on the 4-hour chart. It is precisely the closing below this level that will allow us to expect a new growth in the American currency.

The Fib net formed on extremums from June 7, 2019 and June 18, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD pair and recommendations for traders:

The GBP/USD pair consolidated below the correction level of 76.4%. I recommend selling a pair with a target of 1.2437 and Stop Loss level above 1.2661 if you close below 76.4% (4-hour chart). I recommend buying a pair with a view to 1.2762 if the closing above the Fibo level is 76.4% and the Stop Loss level under 1.2701 on the hourly chart.

Samir Klishi,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
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