Forex Analysis & Reviews: Activity in the foreign exchange market decreases before the Fed meeting on monetary policy (We consider it possible to buy the EUR/USD pair with a decrease in the range and expect the AUD/USD pair to continue to fall)
time 17.09.2019 12:53 PM
time Relevance up to, 01.01.1970 03:00 AM

Long-term review0

Attack by opponent drones of Riyadh to oil refineries had a limited impact on the foreign exchange market. The local surge in demand for defensive assets, including the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, gold and government bonds of economically developed countries, was limited since the Saudis and Americans did not find objective grounds to blame Iran for this attack. Most especially, the fact that they pleaded guilty to this attack Hussites who have been fighting with Saudi Arabia in Yemen for more than one year. This recognition knocks out the basis for the US desire to launch a military operation against Tehran and negates the likelihood of military conflict in the Middle East in the current situation.

Now, the attention of investors is completely shifting to the final decision of the American regulator on monetary policy. Today, the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve begins and tomorrow, its decision on interest rates will be announced. According to market expectations, the Fed will lower its key interest rate tomorrow by 0.25% to 2.00% from 2.25% with a 36.5% probability, which is significantly lower than expectations that were two weeks ago. Then the dynamics of futures for rates on federal funds showed almost one hundred percent confidence.

But then,investors' expectations of lowering interest rates have significantly increased immediately by 0.50% given the events of recent weeks filled with news about the escalation of the trade crisis between the United States and China, as well as the publication of mixed statistics on the American economy and the ECB's decision to start a large-scale program to stimulate the economy of the euro area, and Donald Trump's strongest emotional pressure on the regulator in his desire to significantly cuts the level of interest rates. Again, the dynamics of rates on the Federal Funds shows such a probability of 63.5%.

Assessing such significant shifts in market expectations, we believe that if the Fed really decides to cut rates immediately by 0.50%, this will have a very negative effect on the US dollar. At the same time, it will spur growth in demand for US stocks -at least in the short term.

Forecast of the day:

It seems that the EUR/USD pair will be trading in the range 1.0940-1.1110 before the final decision of the Fed. We consider it possible to buy it at a decrease, approximately from the level of 1.0940 with a local target of 1.1110.

The AUD/USD pair falls on the wave of the publication of the protocol of the last RBA meeting on monetary policy, which showed that the regulator is ready to further reduce interest rates to support economic growth in the country. We expect continued local price decline to 0.6800 and possibly, even to 0.6785.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Pati Gani,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2022
Benefit from analysts’ recommendations right now
Top up trading account
Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Giao dịch khôn ngoan, thành công
    Nạp tiền vào tài khoản của bạn với ít nhất $ 500, đăng ký cuộc thi và có cơ hội giành được các thiết bị di động.
  • Ferrari từ InstaForex
    Nạp tiền vào tài khoản của bạn với ít nhất 1.000
    tham gia cuộc thi và giành chiến thắng Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
  • Tiền gửi lần truy cập
    Gửi vào tài khoản của bạn 3.000 đô la và giành được 1.000 đô la
  • 100% tiền thưởng
    Cơ hội duy nhất của bạn để nhận 100% tiền thưởng khi gửi tiền
  • 55% Tiền thưởng
    Đăng ký tiền thưởng 55% cho mỗi lần gửi tiền của bạn
  • 30% tiền thưởng
    Nhận 30% tiền thưởng mỗi khi bạn nạp tiền vào tài khoản của mình

Recommended Stories

EUR/JPY: level of 143.27 seen as key downside obstacle

The EUR/JPY pair dropped again after failing to reach the 145.00 psychological level or to approach the downtrend line. At the time of writing, it was trading at 143.55

Ralph Shedler 22:00 2022-11-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD: upside continuation

The USD/CAD pair registered a strong upside movement after retesting the 1.3325 downside obstacle (the upside obstacle turned into a downside obstacle). Now, is almost to reach the 1.3495 former

Ralph Shedler 21:26 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin's upside invalidated, 15,632 as key support

The price of Bitcoin slipped lower after reaching the 16,783 level. Now, it is trading at 16,178 at the time of writing. In the short term, it could move sideways

Ralph Shedler 21:00 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Ethereum: upside still possible

Ethereum dropped in the short term also because BTC/USD slipped lower. It is testing and retesting the near-term downside obstacles. Despite the current retreat, the altcoin could still

Ralph Shedler 20:59 2022-11-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY seems oversold at around 137.65

The USD/JPY pair dropped as much as 137.49 today where it has found support. Now, it has rebounded and it's trading at 138.77 at the time of writing. The bias

Ralph Shedler 18:58 2022-11-28 UTC+2

November 28, 2022 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.

Now the market remains under buying pressure until significant downside rejection occurs around one of the key- levels probably around 1.0600. In the mean time, any downside movement towards 1.0000

Mohamed Samy 18:43 2022-11-28 UTC+2

November 28, 2022 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.

Another bearish pullback to test the price levels of 0.9500 was recently executed. Intensive bullish price action was demonstrated around the lower limit of the current movement channel. Initial bullish

Mohamed Samy 18:42 2022-11-28 UTC+2

November 28, 2022 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.

Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1075 & 1.0860 where significant Fibonacci Expansion levels were located. Based on the upcoming price action and the next weekly candlestick closure, the next

Mohamed Samy 18:42 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 28, 2022

Pound Sterling is currently trading at 1.1850. However, if the trend reverses from this point, then a possible future share price target could be 1.2026. If the price of Pound

Mourad El Keddani 18:14 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Weekly review of EUR/USD for November 28, 2022

The EUR/USD pair traded in different directions in the range of 1.0360 - 1.0209 and closed the day without significant changes. Today it fell a little, dropping from

Mourad El Keddani 17:33 2022-11-28 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.